1 Dezembro vs Amora: match statistics

1 Dezembro is the favorite in this matchup: in the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 9 goals and average 1.4 points per game, while Amora has only 4 goals and averages 0.6 points per game over the same period. The hosts create more chances — on average 8.67 shots and 3.17 on target per home game with xG 1.15, versus 6 shots, 2.33 on target and xG 0.87 for the visitors; Amora has a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 10%) but attempts fewer shots. Defensively both teams concede 1.17 goals per game on the season, however in the last 5 matches Amora has shipped 10 goals compared to 5 for 1 Dezembro, indicating a clear deterioration in the visitors’ defensive form. Additionally the hosts have a lower proportion of games without scoring (33% vs 42% for Amora) and better recent points figures (1.4 vs 0.6 average per game), and season-long stats are close (goals 24 vs 23, positions 5 vs 6), so I give a higher probability to a 1 Dezembro win, although a draw remains realistic due to frequent home draws (50% of home games end level).

Both teams had BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches (3/5) for both 1 Dezembro and Amora, while season BTTS rates are 46% for the home side and 42% for the away side (average 44%) and the league BTTS level is 48% — recent form indicates an elevated likelihood of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches 1 Dezembro averaged 1.8 goals for and 1.0 against (9 GF/5 GA), whereas Amora averaged 0.8 GF and 2.0 GA (4/10), highlighting the home side’s attacking form and the away side’s defensive vulnerability. xG comparison: the hosts have 1.38 xG over the last 5 versus 1.51 xG against the visitors, and season xG is 1.11 (home) vs 0.87 (away), which confirms 1 Dezembro generates more high-quality chances. Shot stats also favor the hosts: 8.62 shots and 3.08 on target for 1 Dezembro versus 6.0 and 2.33 for Amora, and season goals for/against (1 Dezembro 24 GF/33 GA, Amora 23 GF/35 GA) point toward matches with goals at both ends. Considering the 60% recent BTTS, the higher xG and shot volume for the hosts, and Amora’s 2.0 average goals conceded in the last 5, I assess BTTS probability at 62% (Yes) vs 38% (No).

I project 2.45 goals in the match (1.30 for 1 Dezembro, 1.15 for Amora), based on xG and recent form. For the home side: season attacking xG 1.11 and last 5 xG 1.38, while the opponent concedes on average xG 1.32 — this supports an expected ~1.30 goals; the hosts average 8.62 shots and 3.08 on target. For Amora: season attacking xG 0.87, last 5 xG 1.19 and the home team concedes xG 1.24 — hence ~1.15 goals; the visitors average 6.0 shots and 2.33 on target with a 14% conversion. A Poisson model with total xG=2.45 yields ~70% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~44% for Over 2.5 and ~23% for Over 3.5, which aligns with seasonal Over1.5 rates (85% for home, 67% for away) and moderate Over2.5 rates (46%/42%). Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommended pick), while Over 3.5 is risky with a low probability of ~23%.

At half-time a draw is most likely: 1 Dezembro were level at the break in 38% of matches and Amora in 42%, giving roughly a 40% chance of a draw at 45 minutes. After 90 minutes a away win is more probable, as Amora have 33% wins and 1.17 points per match versus 15% and 0.77 points for the hosts. Additionally, Amora keep a clean sheet at half-time in 67% of games, whereas 1 Dezembro concedes on average 0.77 goals before the break and lead at the break in only 15% of matches, which increases the likelihood that the visitors will take the initiative after half-time. The hosts have higher xG (1.11 vs 0.87) and more shots (8.62 vs 6.0), but weaker defense (conceding 1.62 goals per season vs 1.17 for Amora) and a lower win rate point toward the HT/FT selection: draw at half-time and Amora to win at full-time (X/2).