1860 München vs Ulm: match statistics

I back the home win (1) — 1860 München averages 1.76 goals per home match with an average xG of 1.56, while Ulm score only 1.29 away with xG 1.42. The decisive edge is in the home defense: Ulm concede 2.18 goals on the road versus 1860 conceding 1.29 at home; a 0.89 goals-per-match differential and a home goal difference of +8 compared to Ulm’s -15 away give 1860 clear control. 1860 also generate better scoring opportunities at home — on average 4.76 shots on target and 12.18 total shots with 14% conversion, while Ulm have 3.71 shots on target, 12.06 total shots and 11% conversion. Over the last 5 matches, the hosts are 1-3-1, scoring 4 and conceding 6, while Ulm are 2-1-2, scoring 6 and conceding 9, which indicates greater defensive instability from the visitors. Considering Ulm’s high away loss rate (59%) and low away win rate (18%), I assess probabilities at 53% for 1860, 33% for a draw and 14% for an Ulm win.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: 1860 München 65% and Ulm 82%, vs league average 64%, giving a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Both sides average 1.29 goals per game, while 1860 concedes 1.88 and Ulm 2.18, so the risk of both teams conceding is pronounced. xG corroborates the exchange of chances — 1860 xG 1.46 vs xG against Ulm 1.63, and Ulm xG 1.42 vs xG against 1860 1.59, meaning both teams generate and allow roughly 1.4–1.6 xG per match. Clean sheets are rare (18% for 1860 and 12% for Ulm), and in the last 5 matches Ulm has 80% BTTS vs 40% for 1860, further favoring a both-teams-to-score outcome. Considering the 65% vs 82% season BTTS, low clean-sheet percentages, aligned xG and shot numbers (avg 11.6 and 12.1 shots with 4.29 and 3.71 on target), I project BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% vs 28% for No.

Both teams have a very high share of matches over 1.5 goals: 1860 at 71% and Ulm at 94%, which is a very strong signal for Over 1.5 (I estimate ~95%). Based on xG: 1860’s average xG is 1.46 and xG against Ulm is 1.63, giving ≈1.55 expected goals for the home side; for Ulm xG for 1.42 and xG against 1.59 give ≈1.51 expected goals. The total expected goals is about 3.06, close to the league average of 3.13, and the season Over 2.5 rates are 65% (1860) and 71% (Ulm), so Over 2.5 is also likely (≈70%). Additionally, both teams have high BTTS: 65% and 82%, and the combination of Over 2.5 with BTTS occurs in 59% of matches for both teams, which reinforces the prospect of at least three goals. I pick Over 1.5 as the strongest signal, while Over 2.5 remains an attractive secondary option.

Hosts led at the break in 4 of their season matches (24%), Ulm only in 2 (12%), and Ulm were trailing at half-time in 8 games (47%), which together yields roughly a 36% chance of 1860 leading after 45 minutes. Over the full match the hosts win 35% of games versus 18% for the visitors; they have higher xG (1.46 vs 1.42) and more shots on target (4.29 vs 3.71), giving them a slight advantage in the final outcome. When leading at the break, the hosts hold on to victory in about 53% of those cases, increasing the likelihood of converting an HT lead to an FT win in their favor. The second half is active: Ulm scored 9 goals in minutes 46–60, the hosts 8 goals in minutes 76–90, and the percentage of matches with a goal after the break is 71% for the hosts and 88% for the visitors, so turnarounds can occur, but 1860 have the tools to close the game. These aggregated signals give the highest single probability for the 1/1 scenario (27%), therefore I pick 1/1.