Aberdeen vs Hearts: match statistics

Aberdeen holds a clear advantage on paper: in the last 5 matches they won all 5 (5/5), scoring 13 goals (avg. 2.6 per match) and conceding only 2 (0.4 per match). Hearts in the same period have a 3-2 record (3/5), with 6 goals scored (1.2 per match) and 8 conceded (1.6 per match), indicating a weaker defense and lower attacking efficiency. Goal difference over the last five matches is +11 for Aberdeen versus -2 for Hearts, and points per game over the last 5 are 3.0 for Aberdeen compared to 1.8 for Hearts. Lack of reliable data on shots, possession or xG in the provided dataset (values 0) forces the forecast to rely mainly on form and goal balance. Therefore I predict a home win; I estimate probabilities of approximately 70% for Aberdeen, 15% for a draw and 15% for Hearts.

I select No BTTS with a 70% probability versus 30% for BTTS. Aberdeen have scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches (2.6 per match) and conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per match), while Hearts have scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceded 8 goals (1.6 per match). xG shows Aberdeen generate 2.08 xG on average with 0.55 xG against, and Hearts have 1.99 xG with 1.37 xG against, which suggests an offensive and defensive advantage for Aberdeen and greater vulnerability to conceding for Hearts. Additionally, only 40% of Aberdeen’s recent games featured BTTS (2 of 5) versus 60% for Hearts (3 of 5), which together indicates a higher likelihood of a clean sheet expected for Aberdeen than a Goal/Goal outcome.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Aberdeen averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Hearts averaged 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded. xG values confirm attacking potential for both teams: Aberdeen has xG 2.08, Hearts xG 1.99, and xG against of 0.55 for Aberdeen and 1.37 for Hearts; this yields a forecast of approximately 1.73 expected goals for Aberdeen and 1.27 for Hearts (total ~3.00). Additionally, 60% of Aberdeen’s matches and 80% of Hearts’ matches in the last 5 finished Over 2.5 goals (average 70%), and in the last 5 Aberdeen scored 13 goals while Hearts scored 6, which supports an Over 2.5 scenario. Considering expected goals ~3.00, Aberdeen’s excellent form (5 wins) and Hearts’ susceptibility to conceding (8 conceded in the last 5), the strongest signal is Over 2.5; I estimate probabilities Over 1.5 ~92%, Over 2.5 ~74% and Over 3.5 ~44%, therefore I recommend betting Over at the 2.5 line as the best choice.

Aberdeen led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and averaged 1.6 first-half goals, while Hearts averaged 0.8 goals by halftime. In the last 5 fixtures Aberdeen won all matches (5/5, 100%) and averaged 2.6 goals per game; Hearts have 3 wins in 5 (60%) and concede an average of 1.6 goals per match. Aberdeen also had more than 1.5 goals by halftime in 4 of 5 games (80% over 1.5 HT), reinforcing the signal of dominance before the interval — therefore I set the highest probability for HT/FT 1/1 at 56%. I assign 11% to the scenario of a draw at halftime with an Aberdeen win (X/1) and 10% to Aberdeen leading at the break but the match finishing level (1/X), since Hearts have led at the interval in 2 of 5 games (40%) and possess some comeback potential. The remaining outcomes, including an away win (e.g., 2/2 at 6%), are judged less likely and I allocate them 23% collectively.