Academia Puerto Cabello vs Deportivo La Guaira: match statistics

This promises to be a very evenly matched contest: Academia Puerto Cabello have won 64% of their home matches, scoring an average of 1.91 goals per game and failing to score in none of them. Deportivo La Guaira, however, remain unbeaten away from home, winning 62% of those matches and drawing the remaining 38%, while conceding just 0.77 goals per game. The hosts create slightly more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.63 compared with the visitors’ 1.46, but La Guaira are in excellent form after winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 15 goals during that run. Puerto Cabello have also been solid, collecting 10 points from their last five games and conceding just 4 goals, so neither side should have a clear advantage. A draw is the most likely outcome, although both teams have strong arguments for scoring at least once.

The strongest argument for BTTS - Yes is provided by the current trends: in their last 5 matches, both teams recorded this outcome in 60% and as many as 100% of their games, respectively. Deportivo La Guaira averaged 3.0 goals per match during this period, while Academia Puerto Cabello averaged 1.6, with xG of 1.98 and 1.72, respectively. However, the hosts have defended solidly throughout the season, conceding just 0.64 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 55% of their games, which clearly limits confidence in the selection. Nevertheless, the visitors failed to score in only 8% of their matches this season, and their average of 1.62 goals aligns well with their strong current attacking form. BTTS - Yes is therefore slightly more likely than BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score, although the advantage over the “No Goal” scenario remains moderate.

Seasonal data clearly supports a limited number of goals: Academia Puerto Cabello concede an average of just 0.64 goals per match, while Deportivo La Guaira concede 0.77. The Under 3.5 goals line has landed in 91% of the hosts’ matches and 77% of the visitors’ games, while Over 2.5 goals has occurred in only 18% and 38% of their respective fixtures. However, both sides still possess enough attacking potential for approximately 2.52 goals, with average xG figures of 1.54 for Puerto Cabello and 1.46 for La Guaira. The visitors’ recent form has been more goal-oriented, with 15 goals scored in their last five matches, but the hosts have conceded only 4 goals during this period, limiting the risk of a game with at least four goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Deportivo La Guaira win, as the visitors were level at the break in 8 of 13 matches, or 62% of cases, and have not been trailing at half-time on any occasion. Both teams are highly solid defensively in the opening 45 minutes: Puerto Cabello concede an average of 0.27 goals, while La Guaira concede just 0.23, with 73% and 77% of their matches respectively featuring a clean sheet at the break. After half-time, the visitors’ attacking advantage increases, as they average 0.92 goals compared with the hosts’ 0.55, while their average in the second half across the last five matches was as high as 1.4 goals. La Guaira have won 62% of their matches this season and remain unbeaten, whereas Puerto Cabello have recorded just a 36% win rate and as many as 45% draws. The visitors’ current form provides further support: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game during that run.