Adama Kenema vs Negele Arsi Ketema: match statistics
Adama Kenema vs Negele Arsi Ketema: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Adama Kenema play Negele Arsi Ketema in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 5 April 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Adama Kenema: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Negele Arsi Ketema: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Adama Kenema scores 0.92 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Negele Arsi Ketema scores 0.97 and concedes 0.79. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Adama Kenema 42%, Negele Arsi Ketema 37%. Over 2.5: Adama Kenema 32%, Negele Arsi Ketema 29%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Negele Arsi Ketema has higher xG: 1.14 vs 1.12. Adama Kenema: 6.4 shots per match, Negele Arsi Ketema: 7.2.
Match halves
Adama Kenema: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.47. Negele Arsi Ketema: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.53.
Goals by minute
Adama Kenema: 16-30 (8 goals). Negele Arsi Ketema: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I forecast a draw because both teams have scored 22 goals this season and their average xG are nearly identical: 1.17 for Adam Kenema at home versus 1.19 for Negele Arsi Ketema away. League position and season record favor the visitors — Negele sit 4th with 10 wins versus Adam’s 7 wins (7th) and a positive away goal differential (+4 vs the hosts’ -2 at home). Recent form presents a mixed picture: the hosts have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches (1W, 2D, 2L) conceding 9, while the visitors have managed only 1 goal in that period (0W, 3D, 2L). Defensively Negele are stronger away — conceding 0.58 goals per game compared to the hosts’ 0.92 — and they have a higher shot conversion rate (13% vs 10%), which increases their chance of winning. Considering Adam’s high home draw rate (50% of home matches end in a draw), similar average shots on target (2.83 vs 2.75) and balanced xG, I assign a 45% probability to a draw, 30% to an away win and 25% to a home win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Adama Kenema | Negele Arsi Ketema | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Adama Kenema · 1.6 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
0.92 goals / match - Adama Kenema · 0.97 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Negele Arsi Ketema is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Adama Kenema · 0.79 goals / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Adama Kenema scores in 61% of matches (23 of 38 matches), while Negele Arsi Ketema keeps a clean sheet in 45% (17 of 38 matches).
Negele Arsi Ketema scores in 63% of matches (24 of 38 matches), while Adama Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 42% (16 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Adama Kenema
Over / Under — Negele Arsi Ketema
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Negele Arsi Ketema is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.21 pts / match - Adama Kenema · 1.45 pts / match - Negele Arsi Ketema
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Adama Kenema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Negele Arsi Ketema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Adama Kenema
Negele Arsi Ketema
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Adama Kenema | Liga | Negele Arsi Ketema | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 1.92 | 1.78 | • 1.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 42% | 40% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 32% | 28% | • 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 40% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 56% | ▼ 53% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 61% | 59% | ▲ 66% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Adama Kenema 0 - 0 - 1 Negele Arsi Ketema. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Adama Kenema vs Negele Arsi Ketema?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Adama Kenema 1:2 Negele Arsi Ketema. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Adama Kenema vs Negele Arsi Ketema?
Adama Kenema score 0.92 goals per game on average and Negele Arsi Ketema 0.97. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Adama Kenema's matches and 37% of Negele Arsi Ketema's.
What form are Adama Kenema and Negele Arsi Ketema in?
Over the last 5 games Adama Kenema have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Negele Arsi Ketema 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Adama Kenema vs Negele Arsi Ketema?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.