Admira vs Sturm Graz II: match statistics

Hosts are the favorites: Admira sit 4th in the table and have 48 goals this season versus Sturm Graz II’s 27, indicating a clear attacking superiority. At home Admira average 2.25 goals per match with xG 1.65 and produce 14 shots (4.92 on target), while Sturm away record 1.08 goals per match, xG 1.18 and 8.83 shots (3.33 on target). Defensively Admira also look stronger — they concede 1.17 goals at home versus Sturm’s 1.42 conceded away, and the hosts’ goal difference is +13 compared to the visitors’ -4. In the last 5 matches Admira have scored 5 goals with a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss (1.2 points per game), while Sturm have 6 goals with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 points per game), which gives the visitors slight momentum but does not offset the seasonal disparities. Considering higher shot conversion (16% vs 12%), lower percentage of matches without a goal (17% vs 25%) and the fact that Admira win 50% of home games and lose only 8%, I predict a home victory.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 54% (Admira) and 58% (Sturm Graz II) versus the league average of 52%, indicating a moderate propensity for Goal/Goal outcomes. Admira has 0% clean sheets this season, while Sturm Graz II has 25% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches BTTS occurred in 40% and 60% of games respectively, so the home side virtually never keeps a clean sheet and the visitors more often participate in both-teams-scoring matches. Average xG against are 1.50 for Admira and 1.60 for Sturm, and season average goals conceded are 1.85 vs 1.42 (total 3.27), exceeding the league average of 2.7 goals per match and increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. Admira averages 3.62 shots on target and 10.15 shots overall, Sturm 3.33 on target and 8.83 overall, and both teams average 1.08 goals scored per match; combined with the low clean sheet percentages this reinforces the BTTS scenario. Based on this I assess BTTS - Yes probability at 66% versus 34% for No Goal, therefore I recommend a 'yes' tip.

Both teams have a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Admira records Over1.5 in 77% of games, and Sturm Graz II in 75%, while the league average goals is 2.7, which favors outcomes of at least 2 goals. The combined xG model projects xG of 1.48 for Admira (1.36 Admira’s attacking xG and 1.60 xG conceded to Sturm II) and 1.34 for Sturm II (1.18 Sturm II’s attacking xG and 1.50 xG conceded to Admira), totaling 2.82 xG in the match. Admira averages 10.15 shots and 3.62 on target, Sturm 8.83 and 3.33, with conversion rates of 11% and 12%, supporting a realistic chance of at least 2 goals. Season Over2.5 rates are 46% (Admira) and 58% (Sturm II), and both teams record simultaneous scoring in 54% and 58% of matches, hence I estimate a moderately higher probability of >2.5 (approx. 54%). Over3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 23% and 25%), therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

I project an HT/FT of 1/2 (home side leads at half-time, but the visitors win after 90 minutes). The home team averages 0.62 goals by the break versus 0.42 for the visitors and have 19 first-half goals compared to 14 for their opponents; additionally the hosts scored 4 goals in minutes 31–45 while the visitors conceded 8 in that interval, which increases the likelihood of the home team taking the lead at the break. However, the visitors are clearly stronger after the break: they average 0.67 goals in the second half and accumulate 1.33 points in that period, whereas the hosts manage only 0.46 goals and 0.69 points after the break; the visitors won the second half in 33% of matches versus 15% for the hosts. Seasonally the visitors collect 1.25 points per game with a 33% win rate versus 0.54 points and an 8% win rate for the hosts, and xG is relatively balanced (1.36 vs 1.18), so I expect the visitors’ advantage mainly in the second half.