ADT vs Alianza Lima: match statistics

I back the away win (2). Alianza Lima has 6 wins this season versus ADT’s 2 and a goal difference of 12–5 compared to the hosts’ 9–12, clearly indicating the visitors’ superiority both in results and defensively. In their last 5 matches Alianza scored 7 goals and averages 2 points per game (3 wins in five), while ADT scored 6 goals and averages 1 point per game (only 1 win in five). However, ADT generates far more chances at home – average xG 1.98, 18.75 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, and their share of home matches without scoring is 0%, whereas Alianza away records only 9.2 shots and 1.8 shots on target per match. Crucially, Alianza concedes only 0.6 goals on average away and keeps clean sheets in 40% of away games, versus ADT conceding 1.5 at home and xG against at home of 1.31; therefore I give the visitors a higher probability (50%) with a significant draw probability (30%).

ADT at home averages 2.0 goals per match (xG 1.87), while Alianza averages 0.8 goals away (xG 0.94); simultaneously ADT has 50% clean sheets at home, and Alianza 40% away clean sheets. In the last 5 matches ADT conceded an average of 1.4 goals, and Alianza scored an average of 1.4 goals, which directly increases the probability that both teams will get on the scoresheet. ADT averages 6.75 shots on target and 18.0 shots per match versus 1.8 on target and 9.2 total for Alianza, and ADT allows 0.69 xG at home while Alianza generates 0.94 xG away — these relationships support chances for both sides. Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for ADT and 40% for Alianza, and in the league BTTS occurs in 56% of matches, which further favors the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering ADT’s chance creation (6.75 shots on target) and the fact Alianza have scored 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches, I prefer BTTS = 'Yes' (60% vs 40%).

I estimate ADT will generate about 1.51 xG (its xG_for average 1.87 and the opponent’s xG_against 1.15), and Alianza about 0.82 xG ((0.94+0.69)/2), giving a total of 2.33 expected goals. With that total, a Poisson distribution implies roughly a 68% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 41% for Over 2.5 goals and only around 21% for 4+ goals, so the strongest signal is Under 3.5. Additionally, ADT averages 2.0 goals at home and records 6.75 shots on target per match, while Alianza has 0.8 goals and 1.8 shots on target away — this indicates home dominance but not necessarily a high-scoring game. Seasonal percentages confirm this assessment: ADT has 25% of matches Over 3.5, Alianza 0% Over 3.5, therefore I recommend the Under 3.5 line as the strongest play.

ADT is the home favorite: they have a 100% win rate at their stadium and average 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, while Alianza Lima averages 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded. At half-time ADT led in 50% of matches and were level in 50% (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 50, drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 50), whereas the visitors never led at the break (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 0) and average only 0.2 goals by half-time. ADT also posts higher xG (1.87 vs. 0.94) and 6.75 shots on target compared to 1.8, and in the second half the hosts score on average 1.25 goals versus 0.6 for the away side, indicating decisive goals come after the break. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and an ADT win at Full-Time (X/1) — assigned probability 47% — with the next most likely outcome being ADT leading at the break and winning the match (1/1) at 35%.