ADT vs Los Chankas: match statistics

I predict an away win (Los Chankas). This season Los Chankas have 9 wins and 0 losses, scoring 21 and conceding 10, whereas ADT have only 2 wins and 5 losses with a 11:15 record. Los Chankas have won all 5 of their last matches, averaging 3 points per game in that span, while ADT average 1 point (last 5: 1W, 2D, 2L). At home ADT generate more chances — on average 18.2 shots and 6.2 on target per game with xG 1.86 — but suffer from low efficiency (conversion 7%) and score only 1.2 goals per game; Los Chankas average 12.6 shots, 4.8 on target, conversion 13% and 1.6 goals on the road. Defensively the visitors look more effective: they concede 1.0 goals away on average with xG against 1.39, while ADT concede 1.4 at home with xG against 1.25, suggesting the visitors defend better than expected from chances conceded and the hosts concede more often than their xG suggests. Considering form, higher finishing efficiency and the fact Los Chankas have not failed to score away (0%), I rate their chances at 65% win, 20% draw and 15% for an ADT win.

I back BTTS - Yes: Los Chankas has a seasonal BTTS rate of 80% versus ADT's 50%, and the league records 56% of matches with both teams scoring, which strongly favors both sides finding the net. In the last 5 matches ADT scored 6 goals (1.2 per match) and conceded 7 (1.4), while Los Chankas scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and conceded 4 (0.8), indicating superior attacking form from the visitors. Season averages show ADT scores 2.17 goals per match and Los Chankas concedes 1.0 per match, so the home side has a realistic chance to score against an opponent that allows goals. xG is similar: xG for ADT 1.33 vs 1.31 for Los Chankas, and xG against is 1.35-1.39; additionally, the home team has 5.17 shots on target vs 4.8 for the visitors with 12-12.6 total shots, confirming an exchange of scoring chances. Although ADT has 50% clean sheets, Los Chankas' 80% BTTS, the league 56% rate and the visitors' recent 10-4 form incline me to choose 'Yes' with a confidence split of 65% vs 35%.

xG-based model: ADT has an attacking xG of 1.33, while Los Chankas concedes an average xG of 1.39 — the mean of these values yields 1.36 expected goals for ADT. For Los Chankas the attacking xG is 1.31 and ADT concedes xG 1.35, giving 1.33 for the visitors; total expected goals sum to 2.69. With λ=2.69 the Poisson distribution gives roughly a 75% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), which is supported by seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 67% for ADT and 80% for Los Chankas (average 73.5%). The chance for Over 2.5 is moderate (~50–51%, Poisson ~50.6%) and aligns with seasonal Over 2.5: 50% (ADT) vs 40% (Los Chankas). I assess Over 3.5 at about 29% (Poisson ~28.6%); although ADT has 50% of season matches >3.5, Los Chankas only 20%, therefore the recommendation is to play Over 1.5 as the strongest and most consistent signal (probability ~75%).

ADT averages 2.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per home match, while Los Chankas averages 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded; additionally the home side’s shot conversion rate is 18% versus 13% for the visitors, supporting greater ADT efficiency from scoring opportunities. In the first half ADT averages 1.0 goals and only 0.33 conceded (scoredAVGHT_home=1.0, concededAVGHT_home=0.33) and led at the break in 3 of 6 home matches (50%), and, notably, has never been trailing at half-time at home (trailingAtHT_home=0.0), so the probability of the hosts losing the lead at the break is low. Los Chankas, however, is in excellent form (5 consecutive wins, form_l5_away='wwwww' and last5_winPercentage_overall_away=100%) and have led at the break in 3 of 5 away matches (60%), so I allow a solid share for the Half-Time draw / Full-Time home win variant. Given the balanced xG (1.33 vs 1.31) and similar shots on target (5.17 vs 4.8), the most likely scenario is 1/1 (38%), the second strongest is X/1 (28%), and scenarios where the hosts are losing at half-time (2/*) are collectively rated at 6%.