AEL vs Olympiakos: match statistics
AEL vs Olympiakos: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
AEL played against Olympiakos in First Division (Cyprus). The game was played on May 9, 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Recent form
AEL has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Olympiakos has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 1.20 points per game.
Scoring records
AEL scores 1.23 goals per game and allows 1.35. Olympiakos scores 0.90 and allows 1.39. Games in this league average 2.59 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 42% of AEL's games and 48% of Olympiakos's. The Over 2.5 rates are 52% and 42%, compared with league averages of 42% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
AEL has the higher season xG average, 1.18 to 1.16 per game. AEL takes 8.9 shots per game, while Olympiakos takes 8.7.
First-half and second-half trends
AEL leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.81 goals per game after halftime. Olympiakos leads at halftime in 32% and scores 0.39 after halftime.
When the teams score
AEL's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (13 goals). For Olympiakos, it is minutes 31-45+ (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
First Division games average 2.59 goals. Both teams score in 42% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 1 home win, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AEL holds a clear home offensive edge: on average 1.38 goals per home match versus only 0.88 goals conceded by Olympiakos away, indicating the hosts’ superior ability to score. This is supported by xG — AEL produces 1.30 xG at home while Olympiakos manages just 1.18 xG on the road — and a higher shot conversion rate of 13% versus 10% for the visitors, meaning the hosts convert chances more frequently. Defensively AEL concedes 1.25 goals per home game on average, while Olympiakos concedes 1.44 goals away and carries a negative goal difference on the road (-9), which raises the risk for the visitors. In the last 5 matches AEL have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 points per game, whereas Olympiakos have 2 wins and 3 losses with 1.2 points per game — the visitors are slightly better in form, but the xG and conversion differentials favor the hosts. Additionally AEL attempts more shots (10.38 vs 9.0) and has a lower share of matches without scoring (31% vs 38%), therefore I predict an AEL victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Strong signal for BTTS - Yes: season BTTS 53% for AEL and 44% for Olympiakos, with recent 5-match rates rising to 80% (AEL) and 60% (Olympiakos). Both teams concede over 1 goal per match this season (AEL 1.33, Olympiakos 1.44), and in the last 5 AEL concedes on average 1.6 goals, increasing likelihood of conceding. xG indicates both create chances: xG for 1.14 (AEL) and 1.18 (Olympiakos) with xG against 1.54 and 1.45, meaning matches generate opportunities on both ends. Clean sheets are rare for these teams (27% vs 25%) despite the league average of 63%, while shots on target 2.6 and 3.25 and conversion rates 11% and 10% suggest chances will be converted. Considering elevated recent BTTS figures (80%/60%), high conceded xG and average goals conceded 1.33/1.44, I tip BTTS – Yes (~65%) vs 35% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I calculated expected goals: AEL about 1.30 (attacking xG 1.14 and historic average xG conceded by Olympiakos 1.45 → mean ≈1.30) and Olympiakos about 1.36 (attacking xG 1.18 and average xG conceded by AEL 1.54 → ≈1.36), total ≈2.66 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.66 gives about a 74% chance of Over 1.5 (probability of 0–1 goals ≈26%), while at the 2.5 line the situation is almost even – P(≤2) ≈50% vs P(≥3) ≈50%. Seasonal stats support Over 1.5: AEL has 73% of matches with more than 1.5 goals, Olympiakos 69%, but the share of matches over 2.5 is only 47% and 38% respectively, which limits value for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely: seasonally 20% for AEL and 25% for Olympiakos, and the model indicates ≈28% for Over 3.5 (i.e. Under 3.5 ≈72%). Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 – it has a clear numerical edge (~74%) and is corroborated by both xG and seasonal percentages.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
AEL led at the break in 6 matches (40%) and were level at half-time in 7 (47%), whereas Olympiakos were leading at the break in only 4 matches (25%) and conceded a lead in 7 (44%), giving the hosts the advantage in the first half. AEL averaged 0.53 goals by half-time and conceded 0.33, while Olympiakos averaged 0.5 scored and 0.75 conceded at the break; additionally AEL accumulated 25 points in half-time situations (average 1.67 points) versus the visitors’ 17 points (average 1.06), so AEL are more likely to be leading after 45 minutes. In the second half, however, the visitors perform better — Olympiakos average 1.13 points in second halves (18 points) vs 0.67 for the hosts (10 points) and have 25% second-half wins compared to AEL’s 7%, which increases the risk of a turnaround. Considering AEL’s strong control before the break (clean sheet at half-time in 87% of matches) and similar xG values of 1.14 (AEL) versus 1.18 (Olympiakos), the most likely scenario is AEL leading at half-time and holding on to win at full-time (1/1). In my assessment the model assigns the highest probability to this scenario (around 26%), with alternatives: HT/FT draw/draw ~21% and draw at half-time with an away win ~14%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| AEL | Olympiakos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
AEL is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / game - AEL · 1.2 pts / game - Olympiakos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AEL is 37% better for: goals scored per game.
1.23 goals / game - AEL · 0.9 goals / game - Olympiakos
AEL scores in 65% of games (20 of 31 meczów), while Olympiakos keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 meczów).
Olympiakos scores in 61% of games (19 of 31 meczów), while AEL keeps a clean sheet in 26% (8 of 31 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AEL
Over / Under - Olympiakos
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Olympiakos is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.13 pts / game - AEL · 1.35 pts / game - Olympiakos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AEL - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 39%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Olympiakos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 32% of games and wins 26%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -10 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
AEL
Olympiakos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| AEL | Liga | Olympiakos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.58 | 2.59 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | • 42% | 42% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 26% | 31% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 77% | 73% | ▼ 65% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 79% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from AEL's perspective: 1 win, 1 draw and 0 losses against Olympiakos. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of AEL vs Olympiakos?
The First Division match finished AEL 1:3 Olympiakos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between AEL and Olympiakos?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches AEL won 1, Olympiakos won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before AEL vs Olympiakos?
AEL score 1.23 goals per game on average and Olympiakos 0.90. The First Division average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 42% of AEL's matches and 48% of Olympiakos's.
What form are AEL and Olympiakos in?
Over the last 5 games AEL have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Olympiakos 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AEL vs Olympiakos?
The statistical background for AEL vs Olympiakos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.