AFC Bournemouth vs Everton: match statistics

Everton head into the match with the better record this season: they won their only game 2:0, while Bournemouth lost 1:2. The visitors are also higher in the table, sitting 4th compared with the hosts’ 13th place, and have collected 10 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins and 1 draw. Bournemouth have scored as many as 19 goals in their last five games, but have also conceded 10, indicating an open style and problems with defensive control. Over the same period, Everton scored 9 goals and conceded only 6, while their average points tally across those five matches stands at 2.0 compared with Bournemouth’s 1.4. The visitors’ advantage in current form and defensive solidity gives them a slightly greater chance of an away win, although Bournemouth’s attacking potential increases the draw risk.

The latest form clearly favors goals from both sides: Bournemouth recorded BTTS - Yes in 100% of their last 5 matches, while Everton did so in 80%. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 3.8 goals and conceded 2.0, whereas Everton scored 1.8 goals and conceded 1.2. Everton generated a solid xG of 1.43, while Bournemouth allowed opponents an xG of 1.29, strengthening the visitors’ chances of scoring. In turn, Bournemouth averages 16 shots, including 5 on target, and its seasonal xG stands at 1.83, so it should create enough opportunities to find the net. Although the league-wide BTTS rate is only 40%, the current results and defensive numbers of both teams provide a stronger signal for a scenario in which each team scores at least once.

Bournemouth’s last five matches produced an average of 5.8 goals, with the team scoring 3.8 per game and conceding 2.0. Over the same period, Everton’s matches averaged 3.0 goals, with 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of Bournemouth’s last five matches and in 60% of Everton’s games, while both teams scored in 100% and 80% of those respective fixtures. Caution around higher goal lines is warranted due to the quality of chances: Bournemouth’s average xG over their last five matches was only 0.89, compared with Everton’s 1.43. Therefore, the projected 2.60 goals provides the strongest support for Over 1.5.

Bournemouth have shown clearly greater attacking potential in their recent matches, averaging 3.8 goals compared with Everton’s 1.8, while in their only home appearance so far they recorded an xG of 1.83 and produced 16 shots. The hosts were leading at the break in 75% of their recent games, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, which supports the scenario of them holding the advantage in the first half. Everton also tend to start strongly, having led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches and won 60% of them, so the risk of HT/FT variants involving an away win remains significant. Bournemouth do concede an average of 1.75 goals after the break, but their superior attacking threat and a home clean-sheet win point slightly towards them maintaining the lead until full-time.