AFC Hornchurch vs Woking: match statistics

AFC Hornchurch have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals during that run, while Woking have suffered 3 defeats and scored just 6 goals. At home, the hosts have a perfect winning record, averaging 3 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in every match. Woking have lost all of their away fixtures, conceding an average of 2 goals and failing to score in any of them, despite averaging 55% possession. Hornchurch are also creating higher-quality chances, recording a home xG of 1.76 against an xG conceded of 0.84, while Woking allow opponents an xG of 1.60. The difference in efficiency, combined with the visitors’ extremely poor away form, clearly points to a home win.

The strongest signal against BTTS comes from Woking: in the season data, the visitors have averaged no goals scored, failed to convert any scoring chances, and have not scored in 100% of their matches. Their BTTS stands at 0% for the season and just 20% across their last five games, clearly below the league average of 61%. AFC Hornchurch should have good conditions to find the net, as Woking concede an average of 2.0 goals, while the hosts register 12.5 shots per match with an xG of 1.48. However, the visitors’ recent form improves their chances, with Woking averaging 1.2 goals scored and creating an xG of 1.29, while Hornchurch have conceded 1.4 goals per game over this period. Nevertheless, the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team—most notably Woking—will fail to score. This does not necessarily imply a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Hornchurch have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last five matches, while Woking have conceded 1.6 goals per game over the same period, which clearly supports the home side’s attacking output. The visitors are less consistent offensively, but their average xG over five matches stands at 1.29, almost identical to the 1.32 xG conceded by Hornchurch, making a Woking goal a realistic scenario. In 80% of Hornchurch’s last five matches and 60% of Woking’s, the games went Over 2.5 goals, compared with a league average of 3.14 goals per match. However, the strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have recorded at least 2 total goals in 100% of their home and away matches so far, while the projected 2.71 goals provides this line with a clear margin.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an AFC Hornchurch win, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with 2 of Woking’s 5. Hornchurch, however, are in clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.2 goals and recording 2.4 points per game, while Woking have lost 3 of their 5 matches. The hosts are also more dangerous before the break, averaging 0.8 goals compared with 0.2 for the visitors, while Woking failed to score in the first half in as many as 80% of their last five matches. After the interval, Hornchurch’s advantage should increase, as they score an average of 1.4 goals in the second half, while Woking concede 1.2; at the same time, the hosts have the higher xG, 1.48 compared with 1.19. Woking remain capable of causing problems, but their season average of 0 goals scored and 100% of matches without scoring suggest that it will be more difficult for them to maintain a favourable result over the full 90 minutes.