AFC Wimbledon vs Plymouth Argyle: match statistics

Plymouth Argyle are the favorites for this match: in their last 5 games the visitors scored 10 goals and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (average 2 points per game), whereas AFC Wimbledon have lost all 5 most recent matches, scoring 0 goals and conceding 10. Over the season Plymouth have 66 goals scored versus Wimbledon’s 49 and average 1.75 goals away, while Wimbledon score 1.14 at home; the visitors also have a positive away goal differential (+9), while the hosts are at 0 at home. In terms of chance quality Plymouth average 4.55 shots on target on the road versus Wimbledon’s 3.52 SOT at home and have better conversion (14% vs 10%), which translates into a higher goals-per-game average. Defensively the margins are smaller — Wimbledon concede 1.14 goals at home, Plymouth concede 1.3 on the road — but the hosts have 43% of home matches without scoring, whereas the visitors fail to score in only 25% of away games and keep 35% clean sheets away. Considering Wimbledon’s 0 points in the last 5, their lack of goals and Plymouth’s advantage in number and quality of chances, I predict a win for the visitors.

I project 'No' (No BTTS) as more likely: 60% probability for no BTTS vs 40% for both teams to score. The strongest signal is AFC Wimbledon’s form — in the last 5 matches they have scored 0 goals and recorded 0% BTTS with an average of 2.0 goals conceded per game, which significantly lowers the likelihood that the home side will score. Plymouth over the same period have scored 10 goals, have 60% BTTS in the last 5 and average xG 1.79 vs Wimbledon’s 1.06, so the visitors are the primary source of goals. Seasonal figures are mixed — Wimbledon seasonally score 1.41 and concede 1.45, Plymouth score 1.75 and concede 1.3; although Wimbledon’s seasonal BTTS is 59% (above the league 51%), the short-term scoring drought (0 goals in 5) outweighs that. Additionally Plymouth have a better goal tally (66 scored vs 49) and a higher clean sheet percentage (35% vs 23%), which increases the probability that only Plymouth will score while Wimbledon remain without a goal.

Season-long data analysis shows Over 1.5 occurred in 68% of AFC Wimbledon matches and 80% of Plymouth matches, averaging a 74% probability of over 1.5 goals. Average xG is 1.54 for Wimbledon and 1.43 for Plymouth; using expected goals as the average of a team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG yields 1.52 for the home side and 1.36 for the away side, totaling 2.88 expected goals. Plymouth is clearly in better form — 10 goals scored in the last 5 matches and an average xG of 1.79 in that period, while Wimbledon has 0 goals and an average xG of 1.06 in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of away goals. Season-long Over 2.5 is 55% (Wimbledon) and 60% (Plymouth), and Over 3.5 is 32% and 45% respectively (averaging ~58% for Over 2.5 and ~39% for Over 3.5), therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Based on these figures I recommend backing Over at the 1.5 line — the largest safety margin (74% forecast) with 2.88 expected goals.

Plymouth looks better in the numbers and form: over the season they score on average 1.75 goals versus 1.41 for AFC Wimbledon and collect 1.6 points per match versus 1.41 for the hosts, with a 60% win rate in the last 5 away matches versus 0% for the home side. At half-time the visitors more often take the lead — 8 times (40%) versus 5 times (23%) for Wimbledon, while Wimbledon shows a marked tendency for half-time draws (55% HT draws vs 20% for the visitors). The second half also favors Plymouth: the visitors won the second half in 45% of matches (vs 36% for the hosts) and have 60% wins in second halves in the last 5 games, whereas the hosts have 0%. Although the hosts’ offensive xG is 1.54 vs 1.43 for the visitors, Plymouth has higher shooting efficiency (14% vs 10%) and lower average goals conceded after the break (0.65 vs 0.77), which increases the likelihood of holding a lead; therefore I rate the strongest signal as Plymouth leading at the break and the visitors winning at full-time (2/2) and assign that scenario a 19% probability, the second-strongest is a half-time draw and visitors winning at full-time (X/2) at 18%.