Agropecuario vs Almagro: match statistics

Agropecuario have a clear home advantage: they have won 47% of their home matches, while Almagro have won 24% of their away games and lost 53%. The hosts concede an average of 0.71 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 59% of matches, while the visitors score just 0.76 goals per away game. The difference in chance quality is reflected in the xG figures: Agropecuario generate 1.54 at home against their opponents’ 1.03, whereas Almagro post 1.00 away and allow opponents 1.79. Both sides are in similar form, each having won 2 of their last 5 matches, but Agropecuario conceded 4 goals in that span compared with Almagro’s 6. The hosts’ low average of one goal per home match limits their advantage and leaves a draw as a realistic possibility; however, the defensive record and the visitors’ poor away results point to an Agropecuario win.

Across the season, both teams scored in 44% of Agropecuario's matches and 47% of Almagro's, which does not provide a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. The biggest obstacle to this outcome is the visitors' attack: Almagro failed to score in 47% of matches and averages 0.76 goals, while the hosts concede an average of 0.89. In their last 5 matches, Agropecuario recorded BTTS - Yes zero times and scored an average of just 0.6 goals, although its xG of 1.54 suggests there is potential for better finishing. A counterpoint is Almagro's recent run, with BTTS - Yes landing in 80% of its last 5 matches; however, against a season league average of 40%, it remains more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 94% of Agropecuario’s matches and 82% of Almagro’s. The hosts average 1.06 goals per match, while the visitors average 0.76, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game despite Almagro conceding an average of 1.53 goals. Agropecuario have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, despite creating chances worth an average of 1.54 xG; Almagro have scored 6 goals over the same period. The 2.15-goal forecast therefore accounts both for the hosts’ chances against the visitors’ weaker defense and for the low finishing efficiency of both teams, making Under 3.5 goals a stronger pick than the lower lines.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Agropecuario were level at the break in 72% of matches, compared with 53% for Almagro, while the visitors went into half-time level in 4 of their last 5 games. A cautious start is also supported by the fact that the hosts failed to score in the first half in 78% of matches, and the visitors in 76%. After the break, the advantage shifts towards Agropecuario, who averaged 0.78 goals in the second half compared with Almagro’s 0.35, and won the second half in 44% of matches, compared with their opponents’ 18%. Across the season, the hosts averaged 1.44 points per match compared with 0.94 for the visitors, who conceded 1.53 goals per game against 0.89 for Agropecuario. The draw-at-half-time, home-win-at-full-time scenario is therefore the strongest, although in their last 5 matches the hosts’ average second-half goals fell to 0.2, while Almagro’s rose to 0.8.