Agropecuario vs Atlético Rafaela: match statistics

Agropecuario have a clear home advantage profile: they win 46% of their home matches, score an average of 1.08 goals, and concede just 0.69 per game. Atlético Rafaela win only 8% of their away matches, average 0.38 goals scored, and fail to score in as many as 62% of those games. The hosts create more chances, averaging 12.23 shots and 4.77 shots on target per match compared with 8.46 and 2.77 for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.49 versus 1.11 for their opponents. Rafaela are nevertheless unbeaten in their last five matches, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws and only 2 goals conceded, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested, low-scoring game. Despite this improvement, the visitors’ away form and Agropecuario’s defensive stability point towards a narrow home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Atlético Rafaela’s very poor away scoring record: the team averages just 0.38 goals away from home and fails to score in 62% of such matches. At home, Agropecuario concede only 0.50 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in as many as 71% of their matches, which significantly limits the visitors’ chances of scoring. Both teams’ seasonal BTTS rates are low, at 29% for Agropecuario and 31% for Atlético Rafaela, compared with a league average of 40%. The last five matches produced BTTS - Yes in 40% of games for each side, but Rafaela scored only 0.8 goals per match during this period, despite their opponents allowing chances worth an average of 1.38 xG. The hosts should have a better chance of finding the net, as their opponents concede an average of 1.00 goals away from home; however, the most likely scenario remains one in which at least one team—primarily the visitors—fails to score.

The match profile is clearly low-scoring: the league average is just 1.94 goals, while the hosts concede only 0.50 goals per game at home. Atlético Rafaela average just 0.38 goals scored away from home and have failed to score in 62% of such matches, while Agropecuario keep a clean sheet in 71% of their home games. The 3.5-goal line has gone under in 86% of Agropecuario’s matches and in all of Atlético Rafaela’s away fixtures. Recent form also does not point to an open game, as Rafaela have conceded only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, with Over 2.5 goals landing in just 20% of cases. An estimated total of 1.60 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Agropecuario win, as the hosts were level at the break in 50% of their home matches, while Atlético Rafaela were level after 45 minutes in as many as 77% of their away fixtures. First halves are highly cautious: Agropecuario average 0.29 goals before the break, compared with 0.15 for the visitors, while the average total number of goals is only 0.50 and 0.54, respectively. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage increases, as they score an average of 0.79 goals compared with Rafaela’s 0.23, while Rafaela concede 0.62 goals per match during that period. Agropecuario have won 64% of their home matches and keep a clean sheet in 71% of them, whereas Rafaela have won only 8% of their away fixtures and have failed to score in 62% of those matches. Ultimately, X/1 has the edge over X/X, although the visitors’ strong current run of five matches unbeaten also increases the risk of a full-time draw.