Agropecuario vs Quilmes: match statistics

I back the home win (1) because Agropecuario shows superior form and efficiency recently: in the last 5 matches they scored 6 goals and average 1.4 points, while Quilmes have only 1 goal and 0.4 points over the same period. Home indicators favor Agropecuario — average home xG 1.57, 5.0 on-target shots per game from 13.29 total shots, versus Quilmes away xG 1.36, 3.71 on-target and 10.57 total shots. Defensively the visitors are weaker: Quilmes concedes 1.29 goals on average away and have only 14% clean sheets, while Agropecuario concede 1.00 at home and keep 43% clean sheets. Additionally, Quilmes suffer 71% losses on the road and fail to score in 57% of away matches, which significantly limits their chances despite a slightly higher conversion (9% vs 8%). Considering the possession edge (51% vs 45%) and the greater number of created chances, I estimate probabilities: home win 60%, draw 25%, away win 15%.

Seasonal BTTS rates are low: Agropecuario have 17% of matches with both teams scoring, Quilmes 29%, versus a league average of 39%, which provides a baseline signal in favor of No Goal. Agropecuario keep a clean sheet in 67% of home matches and concede only 0.33 goals seasonally while scoring 0.83 goals per game, so the home side often prevents opponents from scoring. Quilmes suffer serious offensive issues: in the last 5 matches the away side averaged just 0.2 goals (1 goal total) and have only 20% BTTS in that period, weakening the Goal/Goal scenario. Technically the xG of both teams is similar (1.33 vs 1.36) and shots are around 9.83 vs 10.57, but low efficiency (conversion 8% and 9%) means created chances do not translate into many goals. As a result the strongest data signal is No — no both teams to score; I estimate 75% for No vs 25% for BTTS - Yes, mainly due to the home 67% clean sheets and the away 0.2 goals average in the last 5 matches.

The combined average xG are 1.33 for Agropecuario and 1.36 for Quilmes, with xG conceded at 1.30 (home) and 1.41 (away), translating to expected goals of 1.37 for the home side and 1.33 for the away side (total 2.70). A Poisson model at that total yields probabilities of over 1.5 goals ≈75%, over 2.5 ≈51% and over 3.5 ≈29%. Agropecuario score 0.83 goals at home on average and keep a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while Quilmes score 1.00 goal per match and have only 14% clean sheets, but register an average of 3.71 shots on target and 10.57 shots per match. In the last 5 fixtures Agropecuario have scored 6 goals (conceding 8), and Quilmes only 1 goal (conceding 4), which supports the scenario of at least two goals in the match. Consequently the strongest and least risky signal from the data is the Over 1.5 (backing the over at the 1.5 line).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Agropecuario win at full-time (X/1): the home side were level at the break in 50% of matches, average 0.5 goals in the first half while conceding only 0.17 goals at the break, and their percentage of half-time clean sheets is 83%. In the second half Agropecuario improves efficiency — in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.2 goals per game, whereas Quilmes in that period have only 0.2 goals per game and have not won any of their last 5 fixtures. Quilmes concede on average 1.29 goals per away match and win only 14% of away games with 71% defeats, while Agropecuario have 67% of matches this season with a clean sheet, which increases the likelihood of a low-scoring home victory. Therefore I assign the X/1 scenario the highest probability (35%), with 1/1 as the second option at 20% and X/X at 18% probability.