Agropecuario vs San Martín San Juan: match statistics

San Martín San Juan is favored based on superior form — the visitors average 1.2 points per match in their last 5 and have scored 6 goals in that period, while Agropecuario averages just 0.4 PPG and has scored 2 goals over the last 5. The home side, however, retains a defensive edge at home: Agropecuario concedes 0.8 goals on average at home, has 50% clean sheets and records 1.38 xG at home, indicating an ability to limit opponent chances. San Martín average 1.0 goals on the road, have a higher shot conversion (11% vs 7%) and only 20% goalless matches away, but they concede 1.2 goals on the road and have a lower clean sheet percentage (20%). Considering Agropecuario’s lack of wins in the last 5 (0-2-3) and the visitors’ advantage in goals scored (6 vs 2) and PPG, I give a slight edge to San Martín, expecting a low-scoring game. I assess the probabilities as: San Martín win 45%, draw 35%, Agropecuario win 20%.

Although the seasonal BTTS rates are 56% for Agropecuario and 60% for San Martín, the broader context does not favor both teams scoring: league BTTS is only 39%, and in the last 5 matches for both sides BTTS has fallen to 40%. Goal statistics indicate low efficiency — home side scores 1.11 goals per game on average, visitors 1.00, with Agropecuario conceding 0.78 compared to 1.20 for San Martín, giving a defensive edge to the hosts. In the last 5 matches Agropecuario have scored 2 goals (0.4 per game) with xG 0.78, while San Martín have 6 goals (1.2 per game) and xG 1.44, so only the visitors have been regularly effective recently. Hosts register 4.89 shots on target on average versus 2.6 for the visitors, but have a lower conversion rate of 8% versus San Martín’s 11%; additionally the league has a high share of clean sheets at 78%, and seasonal percentages of matches without conceding are 33% (Agropecuario) and 20% (San Martín). Considering the weight of recent-5 signals and the league trend of low BTTS, I tip No BTTS (No) with a probability of 65% against 35% for BTTS.

After adjusting for xG, the home team has xG 1.58, the away team xG 1.07, and xG against for both is 1.13, yielding projected roughly 1.36 goals for Agropecuario and 1.10 for San Martín (total 2.46). Seasonally Over 1.5 occurs frequently: Agropecuario have 67% of matches over 1.5, San Martín 80%, and a Poisson estimate at combined xG=2.46 gives about a 70% chance of more than 1.5 goals. The 2.5 line is less certain — seasonal shares 33%/40% (home/away) and the xG model suggests roughly a 44% probability of Over 2.5, so the risk is noticeably higher. Over 3.5 is practically absent in both teams’ stats (0%) and although the model gives ~23% chance of 4+ goals, historical data favors the under; in the last 5 matches San Martín scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and Agropecuario only 2 (0.4), which further supports a pick of at least 2 goals in the match.

Agropecuario shows strong first halves: it led at the break in 6 matches (67%) and averages 0.67 goals by half-time while conceding just 0.11, indicating a high probability of leading after 45 minutes. This season the home side averages 1.67 points per match versus 1.10 for San Martín, with a home win rate of 44% compared to 30% for the away guests, and the hosts’ attacking xG is 1.58 versus 1.07 for the opponents, confirming an advantage in chance creation. San Martín is more active after the break — they earn on average 1.4 points in second halves versus 1.0 for the hosts and have 80% of matches with at least one goal in the second half (vs 67% for the hosts), so there is a risk of a turnaround. Given Agropecuario’s frequent lead at the break (67%), superior xG (1.58 vs 1.07) and higher average shots on target (4.89 vs 2.6), the most likely scenario is 1/1 (I estimate around 42%). However, the hosts’ poor form in the last 5 matches (0% wins, 60% losses) and San Martín’s strong second-half effectiveness justify moderate weight on 1/X (17%) and X/X (9%) scenarios.