Águila vs Alianza: match statistics

Alianza are the favorites: the visitors have 27 wins this season and a +21 goal differential on the road, while Águila has 22 wins and only +7 at home. Alianza’s away defense is solid — they concede 0.76 goals per away match on average and keep a clean sheet in 48% of games, whereas Águila concedes 1.24 goals at home and records clean sheets in 24% of matches. Águila, however, generate higher home xG (xG 1.54) and 4.42 on-target shots per game, but the visitors are more efficient (17% vs 15%) and average 1.60 goals away compared to Águila’s 1.52 at home. Form over the last five is comparable: Águila 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (8 points, 1.6 points per game) and only 2 goals conceded; Alianza 2-1-2 (7 points, 1.4 points per game) and 6 goals conceded. Overall the seasonal advantage in total goals for the visitors (81 vs 62) and a higher away win rate (56% vs 44%) support a cautious lean toward a narrow Alianza victory.

I project a 62% probability of No BTTS and 38% for BTTS - Yes, therefore I recommend backing 'No'. Although seasonal rates show 54% BTTS for Águila and 44% for Alianza (49% combined average), BTTS has occurred in only 20% of the last 5 matches for both teams, which materially lowers expectations for mutual scoring. Alianza records a clean sheet in 48% of matches and concedes on average 0.76 goals per game this season, while Águila has 25% clean sheets and concedes 1.33 goals seasonally, so at least one side often keeps a clean sheet. Additionally, in the last 5 fixtures Águila averaged 0.8 goals and Alianza 1.0, and seasonal xG figures are moderate: xG 1.43 (Águila) vs 1.30 (Alianza) with xG against 1.25 and 1.31 respectively, which together with shots on target 4.5 vs 3.88 indicates limited finishing. Considering form (last 5: Águila wwldd, Alianza lldww), the high league clean sheet frequency (55% of matches) and the low BTTS rate in recent games (20%), the 'No' scenario is the stronger play.

The model projects 1.37 goals for Águila and 1.28 for Alianza (xG attack: 1.43 vs 1.30; opponent xG conceded: 1.31 vs 1.25), totaling 2.65 expected goals. Seasonally Águila has 79% of matches over 1.5 goals, Alianza 64%, and a Poisson with λ=2.65 yields about a 74% chance of Over 1.5, which is a clear signal. Over 2.5 is almost even (seasonal 58% for hosts vs 44% for guests; modelled ~49% chance for Over 2.5), so it does not offer the same edge. Over 3.5 looks unlikely (seasonal 33%/24% and modelled ~28%), additionally Alianza keeps 48% clean sheets away and concedes on average 0.76 goals, which lowers the probability of a very high scoreline. Based on this, I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most probable pick.

Alianza led at the break in 44% of their matches this season and scored 6 first-half goals in the last 5 fixtures (1.2 per match), while Águila led at the break in 38% and had only 2 HT goals in the last 5 (0.4). The visitors are defensively strong — they concede just 0.76 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 48% of games, and they maintain a clean sheet at half-time in 76% of matches, which increases the probability of holding a lead. Águila, however, is dangerous after the break: at home their second half averages 1.79 goals, and the hosts score on average 1.0 goal after half-time, which raises the chance of a turnaround. Despite good second-half form, Alianza has the better overall record — the visitors’ average points per match is 1.96 versus the hosts’ 1.79, with comparable xG (hosts xG 1.43 vs visitors xG 1.3), so the strongest signal is Alianza leading at the break and winning the match. Therefore I tip HT/FT 2/2 as the most likely (24%), with X/2 (12%) and X/X (8%) as the main alternatives.