Águila vs Firpo: match statistics

I predict a home win (Águila). In the last 5 matches Águila have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (PPG 1.6), while Firpo went winless over the same period, posting 0-4-1 (PPG 0.8), indicating superior form for the hosts. Seasonally Firpo hold a clear attacking edge (94 goals vs 66 for Águila) and better shot conversion on the road (23% vs 15%), but xG is virtually level: 1.56 for Águila at home versus 1.55 for Firpo away. Additionally, Águila have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches compared to 7 conceded by Firpo and record a higher home clean sheet rate (23% vs 17%), so I give the hosts a slight edge (45%/30%/25%).

Firpo presents a very strong signal for BTTS - Yes: seasonal BTTS 75% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Águila has BTTS 40% for the season and 40% in the last 5. Firpo’s attack is distinctly effective: 2.29 goals per game on average, 94 goals this season, xG_for 1.55 and a high shot conversion rate of 23%, meaning the visitors frequently convert chances into goals. Águila has a strong home defense: only 0.8 goals conceded per game on average for the season, 48% clean sheets and 0.6 goals conceded on average in the last 5 matches, however their xG_for 1.92 and xG_against 1.15 show they also create and concede chances. Comparing xG and goals (Águila 66 scored and 55 conceded vs Firpo 94 scored and 51 conceded) and the league BTTS rate of 54% — which Firpo clearly exceeds — supports both teams scoring; at the same time Águila’s high clean sheet rate (48%) reduces certainty. Overall, weighting the strong away BTTS signal (75%/80%) against the home clean sheet factor, I assess BTTS - Yes at 65% and No at 35% as the most justified forecast.

The xG model and defensive data yield a combined expected goals total of 2.91: Águila 1.56 (attacking xG 1.92 vs opponent xG 1.20) and Firpo 1.35 (attacking xG 1.55 vs opponent xG 1.15). This 2.91 exceeds the league average of 2.68 and, under a Poisson distribution, translates to roughly a 79% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 56% for Over 2.5 goals, and about 33% for Over 3.5 goals. Firpo averages 2.29 goals per game and has 71% of matches with over 2.5 goals, while Águila has 36% such matches; this increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Additionally, BTTS occurs in 40% of Águila’s matches and 75% of Firpo’s matches, indicating both teams score frequently and boosting the chances for Over 1.5/2.5. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (79%) at the 1.5 line; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (56%), and Over 3.5 has a lower probability (33%).

The strongest signal is Firpo's lead at the break: Firpo led at half-time in 12 matches (50%) versus Águila, who led only in 5 matches (20%), with half-time goals per game averaging 0.92 for Firpo and 0.40 for Águila. Additionally, Firpo scores more overall (2.29 on average) than Águila (1.56) and has higher finishing efficiency—shot conversion 23% versus the hosts’ 13%—which increases the likelihood they will maintain the lead. However, Águila generates more chances (xG 1.92 and 12.4 shots per game versus Firpo’s xG 1.55 and 10.17 shots), so there is a real risk the hosts will stage a turnaround or level the score after half-time. Second halves also produce many goals: Firpo averages 2.0 goals in second halves and Águila 1.6, and the proportion of matches with at least one goal after the break is 92% for Firpo and 80% for Águila, which supports Firpo keeping their advantage. As a result, the most likely scenario is 2/2 (30%), with alternatives X/2 (14%) and 2/X (15%) due to Águila’s ability to create advantages (hosts’ last 5 matches: 2 wins, 40%) and the high share of clean sheets for the hosts this season (48%), so I also assign some weight to draw variants.