Aktobe vs Astana: match statistics
Aktobe vs Astana: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Aktobe played against Astana in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The game was played on June 21, 2026. Venue: Ortalıq Stadion. Final score: 2:0.
Recent form
Aktobe has 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.80 points per game. Astana has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, with 2.00 points per game.
Scoring records
Aktobe scores 1.23 goals per game and allows 1.00. Astana scores 1.46 and allows 1.00. Games in this league average 2.24 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 38% of Aktobe's games and 46% of Astana's. The Over 2.5 rates are 31% and 46%, compared with league averages of 52% for BTTS and 42% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Astana has the higher season xG average, 1.71 to 1.50 per game. Aktobe takes 13.8 shots per game, while Astana takes 14.9.
First-half and second-half trends
Aktobe leads at halftime in 23% of its games and scores 0.92 goals per game after halftime. Astana leads at halftime in 38% and scores 0.69 after halftime.
When the teams score
Aktobe's most productive scoring window is minutes 61-75 (6 goals). For Astana, it is minutes 46-60 (6 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Kazakhstan Premier League games average 2.24 goals. Both teams score in 52% of games, and 42% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, 2 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 2 away wins. Those games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home side ('1') because Aktobe score an average of 1.63 goals and concede only 0.75 per home match, while Astana average just 0.5 goals scored and concede 1.5 on the road. The hosts’ offensive activity is clearly superior: Aktobe average 16.5 shots and 6 on target per home game with a 10% conversion rate and xG 1.77, whereas Astana register 14.33 shots, 4.33 on target, 3% conversion and xG 1.56 away. Defensively the hosts also dominate: 63% clean sheets at home and +7 goal difference in home matches versus only 17% clean sheets and -6 goal difference for Astana away. However, the visitors are in better form over the last 5 matches — 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 8 goals scored and an average of 2.0 points per game — so an upset is possible. Taking into account Aktobe’s advantage in conversion (10% vs 3%), shots on target (6 vs 4.33) and defensive stability (63% vs 17%), I assess the probabilities as: home win 65%, draw 18%, Astana win 17%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Aktobe scores on average 2.29 goals at home versus just 0.5 goals scored by Astana away, giving the home side a clear offensive edge. Aktobe concedes only 0.57 goals per match and has a 43% clean sheet rate at home, while Astana averages 0.5 goals away and has only a 17% clean sheet rate — this indicates Astana often struggles to score. Although Aktobe has 57% BTTS - Yes at home and Astana 33% BTTS - Yes away (simple average ~45%), the difference in finishing quality is significant: Aktobe xG 1.85 vs Astana 1.56, 7.43 shots on target vs 4.33 and a conversion rate of 15% vs 3%. The last 5 matches show a short-term uplift for Astana (1.6 goals on average vs 1.2 for Aktobe), but this does not erase the seasonal picture, so a 'No Goal/No Goal' scenario is more likely. For these reasons I assess BTTS - Yes at ~35% and BTTS - No at 65%, therefore I recommend a 'No Goal/No Goal' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model indicates a total expected goals figure of 2.96: Aktobe 1.65 (home xG 1.85 vs xG conceded to Astana 1.45) and Astana 1.31 (offensive xG 1.56 vs xG conceded to Aktobe 1.05). A Poisson distribution yields a high probability of at least 2 goals — P(over 1.5) ≈ 79.5% (P(0)=5.2%, P(1)=15.3%). I estimate P(over 2.5) ≈ 57% (P(0–2)=43.2%), and P(over 3.5) ≈ 34% (P(0–3)=65.6%). Additionally, Aktobe scores an average of 2.29 goals at home, records 7.43 shots on target and has 57% of matches over 2.5, while Astana away has only 33% of matches over 2.5 and a low shot conversion rate of 3%, which supports a higher-scoring scenario. Based on this, the strongest signal is a bet on Over 1.5 as the best line to play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonal statistics strongly favor Aktobe to lead at the break and carry that lead to full-time: the home side led at half-time in 5 matches (71%) and have kept a clean sheet at the break in 100% of games, with average first-half goals 1.29 versus 0.17 for Astana. Over the whole season Aktobe average 2.29 goals per game and win 86% of matches, while Astana average 0.5 goals and have a 0% win rate, giving a clear advantage to the hosts for the full-time result. Aktobe’s superiority is also visible in chance quality: xG 1.85 versus 1.56 for Astana, 7.43 shots on target vs 4.33 and a conversion rate of 15% vs 3%, which indicates greater efficiency for the hosts. Therefore I assign a 57% probability to the 1/1 scenario; I leave smaller probabilities for half-time draws with later outcomes (e.g. X/1 14%, X/X 12%) and effectively exclude scenarios in which Astana lead at the break (2/* = 0%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Aktobe | Astana | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Astana is 11% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / game - Aktobe · 2 pts / game - Astana
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Astana is 19% better for: goals scored per game.
1.23 goals / game - Aktobe · 1.46 goals / game - Astana
Aktobe scores in 69% of games (9 of 13 meczów), while Astana keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 meczów).
Astana scores in 69% of games (9 of 13 meczów), while Aktobe keeps a clean sheet in 38% (5 of 13 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Aktobe
Over / Under - Astana
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Astana is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.31 pts / game - Aktobe · 1.54 pts / game - Astana
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Aktobe - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 23% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Astana - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 46%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Aktobe
Astana
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Aktobe | Liga | Astana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.23 | 2.24 | ▲ 2.46 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 52% | ▼ 46% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 31% | 42% | ▲ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 30% | • 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 46% | 58% | ▲ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 77% | 69% | • 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Record from Aktobe's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses against Astana. Games average 4.50 goals, and both teams scored in 50% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Aktobe vs Astana?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Aktobe 2:0 Astana. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Aktobe and Astana?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Aktobe won 0, Astana won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Aktobe vs Astana?
Aktobe score 1.23 goals per game on average and Astana 1.46. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Aktobe's matches and 46% of Astana's.
What form are Aktobe and Astana in?
Over the last 5 games Aktobe have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Astana 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Aktobe vs Astana?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Aktobe vs Astana: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.