Al Anwar vs Al Ula: match statistics

Al Ula appears to be the favorite: they have 18 wins this season versus 9 for Al Anwar and sit 3rd in the table while the hosts are 10th. Defensively the visitors are markedly superior — conceding 0.93 goals on average away compared to Al Anwar’s 1.53 conceded at home, and registering 40% clean sheets versus 20% for the hosts. In attack Al Ula have scored 65 goals this season and average 2.07 goals per away match, while Al Anwar have 46 goals and 1.93 at home; despite similar xG (Al Ula 1.50 vs Al Anwar 1.51) the visitors have a better goals record and an away goal difference of +17 versus +6 for the hosts. In the last 5 matches Al Anwar scored 12 and conceded 8 with a record of 2W-2D-1L (1.6 points per game), whereas Al Ula have 11 scored and 4 conceded with 3W-1D-1L (2.0 points per game), which confirms the visitors’ superior form. Considering the better defense (0.93 vs 1.53), higher number of wins (18 vs 9) and superior goal difference, I assign higher chances to Al Ula — approximately 60% for an away win, 20% for a draw and 20% for a home win.

BTTS - Yes looks more likely based on specific metrics. Al Anwar has a seasonal BTTS rate of 67%, Al Ula 53%, with the league average at 61%, which already favors both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches Al Anwar recorded BTTS in 100% of games, Al Ula in 60%, with average goals scored 2.4 (Al Anwar) and 2.2 (Al Ula) over that period, confirming both teams’ offensive form. xG also supports a both-goals scenario: Al Anwar xG_for 1.74 exceeds Al Ula xG_against 1.32, and Al Ula xG_for 1.50 is higher than Al Anwar xG_against 0.99. Additionally, hosts average 6.13 shots on target vs 4.87 for visitors and have a seasonal goals average of 2.27 compared to visitors’ 2.07; on this basis I assign 75% to "Yes" and 25% to "No".

The xG model implies expected goals: xG Al Anwar 1.74 vs Al Ula conceded xG 1.32 suggests ~1.53 goals for the home side, while xG Al Ula 1.50 vs Al Anwar conceded xG 0.99 suggests ~1.25 for the visitors, totaling ~2.78 goals. Seasonal figures confirm the offensive profiles of both teams — Al Anwar scores 2.27 on average and has 73% of matches Over 2.5, Al Ula scores 2.07 and has 60% Over 2.5 (league average 59% Over 2.5). A Poisson model at a 2.78 total prices Over 1.5 at ~77%, Over 2.5 at ~52% and Over 3.5 at ~30%, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Al Anwar averages 15.4 shots and 6.13 on target versus 12.53 and 4.87 for Al Ula, and the share of matches in which both teams scored is 67% (home) and 53% (away), which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. As a result I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the safest and statistically justified choice, while Over 2.5 remains moderately likely (~52%).

Hosts show an offensive edge: they score 2.27 goals per game versus 2.07 for the visitors, have higher xG (1.74 vs 1.50) and average 15.4 shots with 6.13 on target compared to visitors' 12.53/4.87. In the first half, in the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5) and averaged 1.4 goals by half-time, while the visitors averaged 0.8 first-half goals across those five games. The hosts also have only a 7% loss rate this season versus a 20% loss rate for the visitors and an average of 2.13 points per game versus 2.00 for the visitors, which favors their Full-Time victory. The visitors, however, have been more active after the break in the last five matches (averaging 1.4 second-half goals versus 1.0 for the hosts), and a season-long BTTS rate of 67% suggests both teams frequently score, leaving room for a draw or a turnaround; nonetheless the strongest signal is a Half-Time/Full-Time outcome of home/home (1/1).