Al Faisaly vs Al Hazm: match statistics

Al Hazm come into this match in clearly superior recent form, having collected 7 points from their last 5 fixtures compared with just 1 for Al Faisaly. The hosts are still without a win in any of their four matches this season and have conceded as many as 13 goals in their last five, highlighting the scale of their defensive problems. Al Hazm average 2 goals per away game and have failed to score in none of their away fixtures, compared with Al Faisaly’s home average of just 0.5 goals. Although the visitors allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.63 and concede 2 goals away from home, the hosts generate only 0.98 xG at home and fail to score in 50% of such matches. Al Hazm’s edge in finishing, results trend and recent performance quality points to an away win, although the visitors’ defensive weakness leaves a draw as a distinct possibility.

The BTTS signal is particularly clear in the teams’ current form: both sides recorded a Goal/Goal result in 80% of their last 5 matches. During this period, Al Faisaly conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match, while Al Hazm conceded 1.6, with neither team having kept a clean sheet so far this season. The hosts have averaged just 0.5 goals per game this season, but their recent average has risen to 1.0, while Al Hazm’s defense allows opponents an xG of 1.63. Al Hazm scores an average of 2.0 goals per game this season and 1.6 across their last five matches, whereas Al Faisaly allows opponents an xG of 1.39 and has conceded 10 goals in 4 matches. The hosts’ low scoring efficiency remains a risk, but the combination of their improved attacking form and both teams’ defensive weaknesses provides stronger support for a BTTS - Yes scenario.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have averaged high-scoring games over their last five matches: 3.6 goals for Al Faisaly and 3.2 goals for Al Hazm. During this period, Al Faisaly conceded as many as 2.6 goals per match, while Al Hazm scored 1.6, clearly increasing the visitors’ attacking potential. Both teams have also recorded goals for both sides in 80% of their last five appearances, while neither has kept a clean sheet in the season data. A model based on current form and xG, standing at 0.98 and 1.12 in attack respectively, points to approximately 2.65 total goals. The 2.5 line is priced almost evenly, whereas just two goals are needed to clear 1.5, giving Over 1.5 goals a clear edge.

Al Hazm have the stronger overall scoring potential, averaging 2.0 goals per match compared with Al Faisaly’s 0.5, while the hosts’ goal record over their last five fixtures stands at 1.0 scored and as many as 2.6 conceded per game. The visitors also make better starts, averaging 1.5 goals in the first half, whereas the hosts have failed to score before the break in any match; Al Hazm have led at half-time in 50% of their matches so far, compared with 0% for Al Faisaly. Recent form further supports the away side: Al Hazm have won 40% of their last five matches, while Al Faisaly have recorded no victories and lost 80% of those fixtures. Although the hosts generate slightly higher average xG, 1.06 versus 0.90, Al Hazm have a significantly better shot conversion rate, 25% compared with 8%, increasing the likelihood of them holding onto a lead. The most likely scenario is therefore an HT/FT outcome in which the visitors take the lead before half-time and go on to secure the win.