Al Feiha vs Al Riyadh: match statistics

Al Feiha sits 11th (9 wins, 8 draws, 13 losses) with a goal record of 36:46, while Al Riyadh are 16th (5 wins, 8 draws, 17 losses) with 30 goals scored and 58 conceded. At home Al Feiha averages 1.21 goals scored and concedes 1.07 per match, recording 43% clean sheets and 36% home wins, whereas Al Riyadh on the road score 1.00 and concede 2.33 per game with only 7% clean sheets and 13% wins. Visitors register more shots (12.93) and on-target attempts (4.67) away than the hosts do at home (9.71 and 3.0), but their conversion rate is 8% versus Feiha’s 13%, indicating higher efficiency from the hosts despite fewer attempts. In the last 5 games Al Feiha scored 3 goals and average 1.0 point per match, while Al Riyadh have 8 goals and 1.4 points; xG shows 1.06 (Feiha at home) vs 1.42 (Riyadh away), so the visitors create chances but their high goals-against average 2.33 and 58 conceded this season make them vulnerable defensively. Considering the hosts’ defensive edge (1.07 vs 2.33), better shot efficiency (13% vs 8%) and stronger league position (11th vs 16th), I forecast an Al Feiha win; estimated probabilities are ~55% home, 30% draw and 15% away.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% (Al Feiha 67% and Al Riyadh 67%), well above the league average of 59%, which is a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Al Riyadh concedes 2.33 goals per game on the season (58 conceded) and in the last 5 matches concedes 2.0 goals per game (10 conceded) while scoring 1.6 goals in those 5 matches (8 scored) — BTTS occurred in 80% of their last 5. Al Feiha scores 1.0 and concedes 1.53 per game on the season (36 scored, 46 conceded), but in the last 5 they have only 3 goals and BTTS at 40%, which weakens their attacking output. xG and shot data support the likelihood of goals from both sides: attack xG 1.22 vs 1.42 and xG against 1.56 vs 1.60, and average shots on target 2.93 vs 4.67 favor the visitors creating more chances. Considering the seasonal 67% BTTS for both teams, very low 7% clean sheets for each, and the strong Al Riyadh signal in the last 5 matches, I assess BTTS probability at 72% versus 28% for No Goal.

Both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals: Al Feiha has 80% of such matches, and Al Riyadh 93%, yielding a historical average of ~86.5%. Based on xG: Al Feiha records an attacking xG of 1.22 while their opponent concedes 1.60 xG → projected ~1.41 goals for the home side; Al Riyadh has xG 1.42 vs conceded 1.56 → projected ~1.49 goals for the away side, totaling ~2.90 expected goals. Seasonally, Over 2.5 occurs in 40% of home matches and 67% of away matches (average 53.5%), and the league averages 3.01 goals per game, so the 2.5 market slightly favors Over, but with lower confidence than 1.5. Over 3.5 has historical rates of 27% for Al Feiha and 47% for Al Riyadh (average 37%) and with projected ~2.90 goals Under 3.5 is more likely than Over 3.5; consequently the strongest signal from the data is an Over on the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Al Feiha victory at full-time (X/1) — I assign this a 30% probability. I expect an even first half, as the average goals scored by half are 0.47 for the home side and 0.47 for the visitors, and Al Feiha’s matches featured at least one goal by half-time in 87% of cases (Al Riyadh’s last 5 matches had >0.5 goals at half-time in 100%). After the break the hosts may have the edge: Al Feiha concedes an average of 1.53 goals per match versus 2.33 conceded by Al Riyadh, and Al Riyadh conceded as many as 9 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to 3 for Al Feiha, which favors a comeback by the home team. Additionally, Al Feiha has collected more points in the second half (15 points versus 10 for the visitors, averaging 1.0 points per match vs 0.67), which increases the chance of the hosts winning after being level at the break. Although Al Riyadh has a slightly higher attacking xG (xG 1.42 vs 1.22) and more shots on target (4.67 vs 2.93), their higher average goals conceded (2.33) limits their ability to maintain the result.