Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya: match statistics

Al Gharafa remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Al Shahaniya have lost 2 of their 5 games. The hosts scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per match, compared with the visitors’ 6 goals, indicating a clear attacking advantage. Both teams conceded 6 goals across their five appearances, so Al Gharafa’s edge is primarily attributable to their more effective attack rather than superior defensive performance. Al Gharafa averaged 1.8 points per match in their latest run, compared with 1.4 for Al Shahaniya, further strengthening the case for the home side. However, Al Gharafa’s three draws in five matches increase the likelihood of a share of the points.

Al Gharafa recorded BTTS in as many as 80% of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.2. Al Shahaniya have a significantly weaker BTTS rate of just 20%; however, over the same period, they scored 1.2 goals per match, while their average xG stood at 1.31. The hosts allowed opponents chances worth 1.41 xG, whereas the visitors conceded an average of 1.2 goals with as much as 1.58 xG against them, which supports the likelihood of an Al Gharafa goal. The biggest risk to this pick is Al Shahaniya’s low BTTS frequency, but their attacking potential and the vulnerability of both defenses give a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

Data from the last five matches indicates scoring potential on both sides: Al Gharafa averaged 2.0 goals, while Al Shahaniya averaged 1.2. Both teams conceded 1.2 goals per match during this period, raising the projection to approximately 2.8 total goals. Al Gharafa had matches with at least three goals in 60% of their last five appearances, compared with 40% for Al Shahaniya. The xG figures also support a scenario with at least two goals, standing at 1.22 for the home side and 1.31 for the visitors, with 1.41 and 1.58 xG conceded, respectively. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as even with moderate finishing efficiency, both teams’ numbers suggest this low line will be surpassed.

Al Gharafa have averaged 2.0 goals over their last five matches, clearly more than Al Shahaniya’s 1.2, while remaining unbeaten, with three draws and two wins. The hosts have looked particularly strong before half-time: they averaged 1.0 goals scored compared with 0.4 by their opponents, led at the break in 40% of matches, and never went into the interval trailing. Al Shahaniya also led at half-time in 40% of their recent matches, but scored only 0.4 goals in the first half and lost two of their five matches over this period. After the break, both teams averaged around one goal scored, although the visitors conceded 1.0 goal per match compared with 0.8 for Al Gharafa. The most likely HT/FT scenario is therefore for the hosts to take the lead at the break and maintain their advantage until the final whistle: 1/1.