Al Ittifaq vs Al Faisaly: match statistics

Al Ittifaq possess a clear attacking advantage at home: they average 2.05 xG, 17.33 shots and 8 shots on target per match, while Al Faisaly manage just 0.99 xG and 6.5 shots away from home. The visitors sit 18th, have failed to win any of their four league matches and have collected just 1 point from their last five games, losing four times. Their away weakness is particularly significant: they have lost both matches played on the road, conceding an average of 3.5 goals with opposition xG at 1.98. Al Ittifaq also have defensive issues, having failed to keep a clean sheet at home and conceding 2.67 goals per match, so the visitors have a realistic chance of scoring. However, the hosts’ superiority in chance creation, average possession of 60% compared to 47%, and Al Faisaly’s significantly poorer form all point towards an Al Ittifaq win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the very poor defensive records of both teams: Al Ittifaq concede an average of 1.5 goals, while Al Faisaly concede as many as 3.5 goals per match, with neither side keeping a clean sheet. Al Faisaly recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season and in 80% of their last five games, during which they conceded an average of 2.6 goals. The hosts scored an average of 1.4 goals in their last five appearances, while their xG stood at a high 1.97, clearly improving the prospects of ending their low seasonal average of 0.5 goals. The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals this season, while Al Ittifaq allowed opponents an average of 1.8 goals in their last five matches. The risk is that Al Ittifaq’s BTTS rate stands at only 40% across their last five games, but the scale of Al Faisaly’s defensive problems makes a home goal more likely than not.

Al Ittifaq have averaged 1.4 goals scored and created 1.97 xG over their last five matches, while Al Faisaly conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game over the same period. The visitors’ defense is particularly vulnerable, conceding an average of 3.5 goals away from home, with 1.98 xG allowed to opponents. The visitors should also contribute to the scoreline: they have scored in every match, while the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet and conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five appearances. In the teams’ last five matches, the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 60% of cases, supporting a projection of close to 3.0 goals. However, the strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have seen at least two goals in 100% of their league matches this season, while their weak defenses significantly reduce the risk of a low-scoring game.

The strongest signal points to Al Ittifaq leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle, as Al Faisaly have lost both of their matches so far and were trailing at half-time on each occasion. The visitors have conceded an average of 2.5 goals in the first halves and 3.5 goals per match overall, while their opponents create more chances, averaging 9.5 shots per game compared with Al Faisaly’s 6.5. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the opponents’ defensive performance: Al Faisaly allow an average xG of 1.98, compared with Al Ittifaq’s xG of 0.98. In their last five matches, Al Ittifaq have won 40% of their games, whereas Al Faisaly have recorded no victories and lost 80% of their matches. The risk of a turnaround by the visitors remains limited, as they have scored an average of just 0.4 goals in the second halves of their last five appearances.