Al Ittifaq vs Al Quadisiya: match statistics

I predict an Al Quadisiya win (away). The visitors have scored 62 goals this season versus Al Ittifaq’s 36, and average 2.42 goals per away match compared to the hosts’ 1.54 goals at home. Form corroborates the edge – Al Quadisiya have 15 goals in their last 5 matches, a record of 3 wins and 2 draws and an average of 2.2 points per game, while Al Ittifaq have 6 goals, 1 win and 0.8 points per game. Chance quality and game control also favor the visitors: away xG For is 1.58 versus 1.06 for the home side, average shots 13.58 (4.83 on target) and possession 58% vs 9.08 (3.85 on target) and 46% — indicating substantially higher chance creation by Al Quadisiya. Additionally, the visitors have conceded only 25 goals this season compared to the hosts’ 44, and Al Ittifaq have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches (2.4 per game), so the forecast favors an Al Quadisiya victory.

Both teams have a high BTTS rate: Al Ittifaq 57% for the season and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Al Quadisiya 75% for the season and 80% in the last 5; the league BTTS stands at 59%. Al Quadisiya is particularly offensive — 62 goals this season, averaging 3.0 goals in the last 5 matches (15 goals) and recent xG_for 1.92, confirming their chance-creating ability. Al Ittifaq scores 2.36 goals seasonally with xG_for 1.7, but in the last 5 matches managed only 6 goals (1.2 avg) and conceded 2.4 goals on average, and a recent xG_against of 1.81 indicates defensive issues. Additionally, clean sheet stats show Al Ittifaq with 43% clean sheets this season versus Al Quadisiya at only 17%, and 0-0 occurs in just 7–8% of cases, reducing the likelihood of a goalless match. Considering seasonal BTTS 57% and 75%, recent 60%/80%, the visitors’ higher xG and scoring form, and the league average of 3.04 goals per game, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 78% versus 22% for No Goal.

Al Ittifaq has 86% of matches over 1.5 goals and Al Qadisiyah 83%, which already provides a strong signal for Over 1.5. An xG-based model shows 1.52 expected goals for the home side (xG_for 1.70 vs opponents’ xG_conceded 1.33) and 1.24 for the visitors (xG_for 1.58 vs home xG_conceded 0.90), totalling 2.76 expected goals. On the 2.5 line, season rates are 64% (home) and 75% (away), and in the last 5 matches 60% and 80%, so Over 2.5 has a moderate edge (around 70%). The 3.5 line is less convincing: seasonal Over 3.5 rates are 50% and 58% (average 54%), but xG of 2.76 is well below 3.5, so I rate Over 3.5 lower (46%). Additionally, Al Qadisiyah averages 3.0 goals in their last 5 matches and has 75% BTTS, while the home side shows good conversion (16%) and averages 4.93 shots on target, reinforcing the case for at least two goals in the match.

Statistics indicate that the most likely half-time state is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 57% of their matches, the visitors in 42%, yielding on average roughly a 50% chance of a half-time draw. After the break Al Ittifaq holds a clear advantage — the hosts average 1.43 goals scored after half-time and concede only 0.21, and in late stages (min. 76–90) they have scored 11 goals versus 4 for the away team. Al Quadisiya led at the break in 50% of their outings and have a recent 60% win rate in their last five matches, but they concede on average 1.0 goals after half-time and record just 25% clean sheets in second halves, so holding a lead is not certain. Therefore I project a half-time draw with a home win at full-time (X/1) as the strongest scenario, with an estimated probability of about 18% in the overall distribution.