Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed: match statistics

Al Nejmeh shows a strong home defense — conceding 0.44 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet in 56% of appearances, while Al Ahed concedes 0.6 goals away and records 50% clean sheets. Offensively both teams are similar (Al Nejmeh scores 1.89 goals per home game, Al Ahed 1.9 away), but in the last 5 matches the hosts have scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 5, whereas the visitors have only 3 goals (0.6 per game) and conceded 4. Al Ahed generates more chances by xG — 1.37 xG away versus the hosts' 1.08 xG — and averages 9.7 shots per game versus 6.75 for Nejmeh, but shot conversion favors the hosts (26% vs 20%). Short-term form also favors the hosts: Al Nejmeh has 1.8 points per game in the last 5, Al Ahed 1.0, despite the visitors having an 80% win rate away across the season. Therefore I rate a home win as the most likely outcome, while the comparable quality of chances also creates a real risk of a draw or a narrow away win.

Although BTTS occurs moderately rarely on a seasonal basis — Al Nejmeh 25%, Al Ahed 40% and the league 33% — there are significant signals favoring BTTS - Yes. Al Nejmeh in the last 5 matches has BTTS 80% and scores on average 2.0 goals (10 goals in 5 matches), while Al Ahed in that period averages 0.6 goals and BTTS 40%, suggesting the hosts more often drive both teams to score. xG shows 1.59 for Nejmeh and 1.37 for Ahed with xG against of 1.10 and 0.89 respectively, so both sides generate over 1.0 xG and have realistic goal potential. Counselling against BTTS are clean sheet statistics (50% for both teams and as high as 80% in the league) and the difference in shot conversion — 8% for the hosts versus 20% for the visitors — which adds risk. In summary, taking into account Nejmeh’s recent form (80% BTTS, 2.0 goals) and xG 1.59/1.37, I give a 60% edge to the 'Yes' scenario versus 40% for 'No'.

I project 1.24 goals for Al Nejmeh and 1.24 for Al Ahed (total 2.48), calculated as the average of the home attack xG vs away defense xG: home attack xG 1.59 vs away defense xG 0.89, and away attack xG 1.37 vs home defense xG 1.10. A Poisson model with λ=2.48 yields P(Over 1.5) ≈ 70.8% (rounded to 71%), which aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 63% for the home team and 70% for the away team. For the 2.5 line Poisson forecasts Over ≈45% / Under 55%, and for 3.5 Over ≈24% / Under 76%; seasonal Over2.5 at 50% is neutral, while seasonal Over3.5 at 25%/20% confirms a low probability of many goals. Additionally, both teams have 50% clean sheets this season (which suppresses very high scores), but high Over 0.5 rates (88% and 100%) and the home form (last 5: home side averages 2.0 goals vs 0.6 for the away side) indicate the strongest and most value signal is Over 1.5.

Al Ahed are the clear favorites: they have an 80% win rate this season and average 2.4 points per match compared to Nejmeh’s 38% win rate and 1.25 points. At Half-Time the statistics strongly favor the visitors — they lead at the break in 60% of matches, have accrued 22 points by Half-Time versus 9 for the hosts, and average 1.0 goals at Half-Time compared to Nejmeh’s 0.25. Additionally, Ahed are far more efficient at converting chances (20% vs 8%) and concede less xG (0.89 vs 1.10), while created xG stands at 1.37 (Ahed) versus 1.59 (Nejmeh), indicating a visitors’ efficiency advantage. Based on this I assign the highest probability to the 2/2 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (45%); the second most likely outcome is a draw at the break and a visitors’ turnaround X/2 (20%); the remaining combinations carry smaller shares.