Al Quadisiya vs Al Ahli: match statistics

Al Quadisiya have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 2 during that run, while Al Ahli have conceded 7 goals in their last five games. The hosts create significantly more at home, averaging 21.5 shots and 9 on target per match, compared with the visitors’ 14.67 attempts and 3.67 shots on target. The quality of chances also favors Al Quadisiya, whose average xG stands at 2.54, while their opponents allow an xG of 1.31. Al Ahli have lost 67% of their away matches, scoring only 0.67 goals and conceding 2 per game on average. Although the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet at home, their significantly greater possession share—62% compared with 52%—along with their current attacking form, points to a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Al Quadisiya have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far and concede an average of 0.0 goals. In their last five fixtures, the hosts have allowed just 0.4 goals per match, while their average xG against stands at only 0.79, limiting Al Ahli’s chances of scoring. Away from home, the visitors average just 0.67 goals, have failed to score in 33% of such games, and have a shot conversion rate of 5%, compared with 25% for the hosts. Al Quadisiya are also highly dangerous in attack, averaging 4.0 goals and 7.0 shots on target per home match, making a home win to nil the most likely scenario. BTTS landed in only 20% of Al Quadisiya’s last five matches and 40% of Al Ahli’s games, well below the league average of 51%.

Al Quadisiya are in excellent attacking form, averaging 2.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Al Ahli have averaged 1.6 goals during this period, but their opponents should limit that output, as the hosts have allowed an average of only 0.79 xG, while the visitors have created 1.68 xG. The hosts have generated as much as 2.02 xG, while Al Ahli have conceded an average of 1.4 goals, supporting a scenario of around two goals for Al Quadisiya. Although Al Ahli had 80% of their last five matches finish Over 2.5 goals, the projected total of 2.70 goals is clearly closer to three than four goals. The strongest option is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the hosts’ solid defensive record reduces the likelihood of an open, four-goal game.

Al Quadisiya has a very strong home profile: it has won all of its matches at home so far, averaging 4.0 goals scored and conceding none. The hosts have already been averaging 2.0 goals by half-time and held a lead at the break in 100% of these matches, while Al Ahli were trailing at half-time in 67% of their away games and scored just 0.33 goals before the interval. The advantage is also evident in finishing quality: Al Quadisiya records 7.0 shots on target per match with a 25% conversion rate, compared with Al Ahli’s 3.67 shots on target and 5% conversion rate. In their last five matches, the hosts were leading at half-time in 60% of cases and averaged 1.2 goals before the break, while their opponents scored only 0.4 goals during that period. After the interval, Al Quadisiya still has a home record of 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded, making an Al Quadisiya lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the most likely HT/FT outcome.