Al Quadisiya vs Al Hazm: match statistics

Al Quadisiya is the favorite: at home they average 2.38 goals scored per match and concede only 0.81, while Al Hazm on the road score 1.00 and concede 1.56. The hosts create more chances (on average 15 shots and 5.19 on target per match) with a higher xG of 1.77 and a conversion rate of 16%, whereas the visitors average 10.63 shots, 4.25 on target, xG 1.23 and a 9% conversion. Al Quadisiya also has better season-long metrics: 76 goals scored and a +25 goal difference at home, winning 63% of home matches and registering only 6% of matches without a goal, while Al Hazm win only 19% of away games and have 38% of away matches without scoring. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts scored 12 goals with 3 wins and 2 draws (PPG 2.2), and the visitors 7 goals with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (PPG 1.6), which confirms greater consistency from Al Quadisiya. Considering the advantage in finishing, possession and defense (e.g. 2.38 vs 1.00 goals and xG 1.77 vs 1.23 and xG against 0.95 vs 1.46), I predict a home win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates at 63% (Al Quadisiya 63%, Al Hazm 63%), clearly above the league average of 59% and a strong indicator that matches commonly see goals at both ends. Defenses are also prone to conceding — average goals conceded are 1.88 (Al Quadisiya) and 1.56 (Al Hazm), while clean sheet expected is only 13% and 6%, which increases the likelihood of both teams conceding. Offensively the numbers also support BTTS: season goals per match are 1.25 and 1.00, and in the last 5 matches Al Quadisiya averaged 2.4 goals (last5 xG 2.27) and Al Hazm 1.4 goals (last5 xG 1.58), with an equal 4.25 shots on target each. Moreover, the league records an average of 3.02 goals per game, and the over 2.5 percentage is 69% for home teams and 56% for away teams, with the over2.5 + BTTS combination occurring 56% for homes and 44% for aways, which strengthens the both-teams-to-score scenario. Considering these concrete figures (63% BTTS both, 13% and 6% clean sheets, 1.88 and 1.56 goals conceded, last5: 2.4 vs 1.4 goals and xG 2.27 vs 1.58), I estimate a 75% probability for BTTS and 25% for No BTTS; therefore I recommend the "yes" bet (BTTS - Yes).

I estimate 1.60 expected goals for Al Quadisiya and 1.33 for Al Hazm, totalling 2.93 xG based on seasonal xG and form. Home season xG is 1.45 and xG against Al Hazm is 1.46 (simple home average 1.46); for Al Hazm attack xG is 1.23 with xG against Al Quadisiya 1.41 (simple average 1.32); I also incorporated the last 5 matches where Al Quadisiya had xG=2.27 and scored 12 goals (2.4 avg), and Al Hazm xG=1.58 and scored 7 goals (1.4 avg), and averaged using a weighted method. This translates into a very high probability for Over 1.5: seasonally Over1.5 occurred 94% for hosts and 81% for guests, therefore I rate Over1.5 at 92%. Over 2.5 also has solid backing (seasonally 69% for hosts and 56% for guests, in the last 5 matches 80% and 60%), so I assign it a 69% chance. Over 3.5 is clearly less likely (seasonal 31%/25%), so I rate Over3.5 at 31% — the best market to play is Over 1.5 given the expected 2.93 goals and a high BTTS rate of 63% for both teams.

The most likely scenario is a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1), because the home side were level at the break in 56% of their season matches versus 44% for the visitors. The home team have won 44% of matches this season and 60% of their last five, while Al Hazm have only a 19% season win rate and 40% in their last five, which strongly signals a home victory after the break. Offensive metrics support this conclusion: the home side’s xG is 1.45 versus 1.23 for the visitors, average shots 13.0 vs 10.63, and as many as 94% of the home team’s matches featured a goal after the break, indicating a decision in the second half. Seasonally the visitors scored on average 0.5 goals before half-time compared to 0.38 for the home team, but in the last five matches Al Quadisiya averaged 1.0 goal by half-time versus 0.6 for Al Hazm, so pre-half form and post-half strength favor X/1.