Al Quadisiya vs Al Shabab: match statistics

Al Quadisiya holds a clear offensive and defensive advantage: at home they score 2.36 goals and concede 0.71 per match, while Al Shabab score 0.93 and concede 1.14 on the road. The hosts generate better chances — home xG 1.70 vs visitors’ 1.25 xG away, more shots (14.43 per match vs 11.29) and more shots on target (4.93 vs 3.43) and double the shot conversion rate 16% vs 8%. Season-long metrics also favor the hosts: 65 goals and 4th place in the table versus 34 goals and 12th for Al Shabab; the hosts have kept clean sheets in 43% of home matches compared to just 21% of the visitors’ away games. In the last 5 matches both teams show similar points averages of 1.6 and a 2-2-1 record, with the hosts scoring 11 goals and the visitors 10, indicating comparable short-term form but superior chance quality and stability from the hosts. For these reasons I forecast an Al Quadisiya win, estimating ~70% probability, with a draw at 18% and an away win at 12%.

I lean towards 'BTTS - Yes' because Al Quadisiya has a season BTTS rate of 69% versus Al Shabab's 43%, with the hosts recording BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches and the visitors in 80%. In their last 5 matches Al Quadisiya average 2.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Al Shabab average 2.0 scored and 1.6 conceded; this corresponds to 11 and 10 goals scored respectively and 8 goals conceded each over the five matches. xG supports this: xG_for 1.73 for the hosts and 1.25 for the visitors, with xG_against 1.28 and 1.25 respectively, totalling approximately 2.98 xG per match, and the hosts register 5.77 shots on target versus 3.43 for the visitors. Season averages show the hosts' offensive edge (1.62 goals per game vs 0.93 for the visitors and 65 goals scored vs 34), but the visitors' good form in the last 5 games has mitigated their seasonal weaknesses. Considering the 100% vs 80% recent form, combined xG ≈2.98 and the shots and goals stats, I estimate BTTS probability at 75% and No Goal at 25%.

I forecast Over 1.5 because the combined xG is 2.98 (1.73 for Al Quadisiya and 1.25 for Al Shabab), indicating a goals edge in this match. Both teams have a high percentage of matches over 1.5 goals: Al Quadisiya 77% and Al Shabab 71%, and the league averages 3.05 goals per match, further confirming a tendency for more than one goal. In the last 5 matches Al Quadisiya scores on average 2.2 goals, Al Shabab 2.0 (combined 4.2 g/m) and recent xG 1.74+1.95=3.69, which also signals Over 2.5 (hence the moderate price on 2.5). Seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 54% for hosts vs 21% for visitors, and Over 3.5 46% vs 21%, so Over 3.5 is less likely (I estimate ~36%). Additionally, hosts average 5.77 shots on target with an 11% conversion, and visitors 3.43 shots on target with an 8% conversion, which supports taking the Over at the lower lines.

I project a Half-Time draw and an Al Quadisiya win after 90 minutes (X/1). Al Quadisiya scores on average 0.85 goals before the break versus just 0.29 for Al Shabab; hosts lead at the break in 31% of matches while the visitors have never led at the break (0%), whereas a draw at the break occurs for hosts in 38% and for visitors in 57% of games — this supports a halftime draw scenario. After the break the hosts hold the advantage: their average xG is 1.73 versus 1.25 for the visitors, they register on average 15.31 shots (5.77 on target) compared to 11.29 (3.43 on target) for Al Shabab and they have a higher conversion rate (11% vs 8%), which makes it easier for them to score in the second half. At full-time the hosts win 38% of matches while the visitors win only 14%, and additionally 69% of the hosts’ matches finish with goals at both ends, so the HT draw / FT home win scenario has the strongest statistical support.