Al Raed vs Al Jeel: match statistics

Al Raed have a clear attacking advantage at home, averaging 2 goals per match, while Al Jeel are yet to score away and have failed to find the net in 100% of such fixtures. The hosts also create significantly more chances, averaging 9 shots, including 3 on target, with 73% possession, compared with just 3 shots for the visitors, 2 of them on target, and 34% possession. The difference in chance quality is significant: Al Raed’s average xG is 1.21, whereas Al Jeel’s stands at just 0.59, while the visitors’ defense allows an opposing xG of 2.56. Al Raed also have defensive issues, conceding an average of 3 goals at home and failing to keep a clean sheet, which increases the likelihood of a draw. However, the visitors’ poor form — 0 wins and just 3 goals in their last 5 matches — supports a home win. Both teams lost their only previous fixture at home and away respectively, but Al Raed’s greater scoring potential should ultimately secure the victory.

The strongest signal is Al Jeel’s weak attack: the team has not yet scored in the available season data, while its average xG stands at just 0.59. Al Raed has kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches so far, whereas Al Jeel has failed to score in 100% of games. In their last five appearances, BTTS - Yes occurred in only 40% of matches, below the league average of 44%. Al Raed creates significantly more chances, averaging 12.5 shots compared with the opponent’s 3.0, while Al Jeel’s extremely low 2.56 xG conceded increases the likelihood that the hosts will secure the result on their own. The BTTS - Yes scenario cannot be ruled out, as Al Raed has recently conceded an average of 1.6 goals, but the greater risk concerns the visitors failing to score. Therefore, BTTS - No is the recommended market: it means that at least one team will fail to score, not automatically a 0:0 result or that neither team will score.

Al Raed have a clear attacking edge: their average home xG is 1.36, while Al Jeel create just 0.59 xG away from home. The hosts average 12.5 shots, compared with only 3.0 for the visitors, which reduces the likelihood of an open, high-scoring game with goals at both ends. In their last five matches, Al Jeel scored just 0.6 goals per game, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 20% of their matches; for Al Raed, this figure was 40%. In addition, both teams have recorded Under 3.5 goals in 100% of matches in the available season sample, while the league average is only 1.93 goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick.

Al Raed have a clear advantage in chance quality: their average xG stands at 1.36, while Al Jeel generate just 0.59 xG, and the visitors’ defense concede as much as 2.56 xG per match. In their last five fixtures, the hosts won 40% of their matches and scored an average of 1.6 goals, whereas the visitors failed to win any game, scoring only 0.6 goals per match. Al Raed held a lead at the break in 2 of their last 5 matches, while Al Jeel were never ahead at half-time and were level after 45 minutes in 4 of 5 games. The hosts also take significantly more shots, averaging 12.5 compared with their opponents’ 3.0, which increases the likelihood of taking control early. The most likely scenario is therefore Al Raed leading at half-time and maintaining their winning result through to full-time, although a draw at the break remains a significant alternative.