Al Raed vs Al Orubah: match statistics

Al Raed holds a statistical edge at home: on average 2.21 goals scored and 13.21 shots per match with 5.21 on target and 54% possession, while Al Orubah register 1.93 goals, 10.21 shots and 3.93 on target away with 47% possession. In the last 5 matches the hosts have a 3-1-1 record, scoring 8 goals and averaging 2.0 pts per game, whereas the visitors have 2 wins and 3 losses with 5 goals and 1.2 pts per game. Chance quality also favors Al Raed: home xG is 1.57 per match versus 1.30 xG for Al Orubah away, and xG against is lower (1.08 vs 1.23), indicating the hosts create more valuable chances and concede fewer. Although Al Orubah have more wins this season (15 vs 12) and in the provided data a higher away win rate (64% vs 57% home wins for Al Raed), their recent goals-against figures (conceding 1.36 on average away vs 1.21 for the hosts) and a higher share of matches without scoring (14% vs 7%) reduce the visitors' advantage. Based on superiority in shots (13.21 vs 10.21), xG (1.57 vs 1.30) and form over the last 5 (2.0 vs 1.2 pts), I tip an Al Raed victory.

Al Orubah has a seasonal BTTS rate of 79% while Al Raed is at 43% and the league average is 62%, which strongly favors a both teams to score scenario. Al Orubah averages 1.93 goals per match (xG 1.30) and displays a high shot conversion rate of 19% with 3.93 shots on target, and Al Raed concedes 1.14 goals per match — this increases the likelihood the visitors will score. Al Raed themselves average 1.21 goals per match (xG 1.35) and have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (1.6 per match), while Al Orubah concedes 1.36 goals seasonally and 1.2 in the last 5, so the hosts also have realistic chances to find the net. Counterpoints are Al Raed’s 29% clean sheets and the drop in BTTS rates for both teams to 40% over the last 5 matches, but Al Orubah’s offensive signals and the high league BTTS average of 62% outweigh these. Based on this I estimate BTTS probability at 70% and No BTTS at 30%, therefore the best selection is 'BTTS - Yes'.

Expected goals are 1.29 for Al Raed and 1.34 for Al Orubah, totaling 2.63 goals. Estimates were derived by averaging xG-based estimates (home xG 1.35 vs xG conceded by visitors 1.23 → 1.29; away xG 1.30 vs xG conceded by home 0.98 → 1.14) and seasonal average goals ((1.21+1.36)/2=1.29 for home and (1.93+1.14)/2=1.54 for away), resulting in final values of 1.29 and 1.34. A Poisson model with λ=2.63 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈74%, Over 2.5 ≈49% and Over 3.5 ≈27%. Additionally, the away team has BTTS in 79% of matches, both teams have 93% of matches with at least one goal each, and the league averages 2.93 goals per game, which further supports the Over 1.5 option. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈74%), while the 2.5 line is effectively 50/50 (~49%), and 3.5 remains unlikely (~27%).

Al Orubah has performed better this season: they win 64% of matches and score an average of 1.93 goals per game versus Al Raed’s 1.21, with the visitors’ shot conversion at 19% compared to the hosts’ 10%. At half-time the metrics are more balanced — Al Raed scores an average of 0.43 goals by the break and keeps a first-half clean sheet in 79% of matches, while Al Orubah scores 0.71 goals by half-time and holds a lead at the break in 43% of their games. The second half favors the visitors: Al Orubah scores an average of 1.21 goals after the break versus the hosts’ 0.79, and matches involving the visitors see a post-break goal in 93% of cases, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after half-time. xG is similar (xG 1.30 for Al Orubah versus 1.35 for Al Raed), so the edge comes from higher finishing efficiency and the visitors’ 64% win rate; therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Al Orubah victory after 90 minutes (HT/FT: X/2). Alternatively, the second most probable outcome is Al Orubah leading at the break and winning the match (HT/FT: 1/1), reflecting their 43% rate of leads at half-time.