Al Raed vs Hajer: match statistics

Al Raed go into this match after winning their only league fixture so far, scoring 1 goal and keeping a clean sheet, while Hajer lost their match 0:3. In their last five outings, the hosts have scored 9 goals—one more than Hajer—while conceding 7 compared with the visitors’ 10. The recent form also slightly favors Al Raed: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats give them an average of 1.4 points per match, compared with Hajer’s 1.2 points after 2 wins and 3 defeats. The visitors are capable of scoring, but their defense has conceded an average of 2 goals per game across their last five matches, increasing the hosts’ chances of making the most of home advantage. The gap in the table, where Al Raed are fifth and Hajer are eighteenth, further strengthens the case for a home win.

Recent form clearly supports goals at both ends: Al Raed recorded BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Hajer did so in as many as 80%. Over the same period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas the visitors scored 1.6 goals and conceded 2.0, creating a favorable profile for a goal exchange. Hajer generated an average of 1.09 xG, while Al Raed’s defense allowed opponents 1.53 xG, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario. Al Raed, in turn, produced 1.12 xG, although Hajer had allowed opponents only 0.76 xG in their last five matches, so the risk of the hosts failing to score remains significant. The league’s seasonal BTTS average stands at just 33%, but the very limited seasonal data for both teams is less reliable than their current run of form; therefore, BTTS - Yes is marginally preferred.

Al Raed’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, while Hajer’s games averaged as many as 3.6 goals, clearly supporting a scenario with at least two goals. During this period, Al Raed scored 1.8 goals per match and conceded 1.4, while Hajer scored 1.6 goals but allowed opponents to find the net 2.0 times. The 2.5 line was covered in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 100% of the visitors’ games, although it is tempered by Hajer’s xG of 1.09 and xG against of just 0.76. Both teams also scored in 60% and 80% of their respective recent matches. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as the 3.00-goal forecast gives it a clearer edge than the more demanding lines.

The strongest signal points to Al Raed leading at the break: in their last five matches, the hosts took the lead in 60% of games, scoring an average of 1.2 goals before half-time. Over the same period, Hajer scored only 0.25 goals before the break and failed to score in the first half in 75% of matches. Al Raed also have the more favorable current attacking output, averaging 1.8 goals per match compared with the opponents’ 1.6, while Hajer concede as many as 2.0 goals per game, compared with 1.4 for the hosts. The 1/1 scenario is further supported by the fact that the visitors lost 60% of their last five matches, although their high average of 1.0 goal after half-time increases the risk of a late reduction in the hosts’ lead.