Al Riyadh vs Al Fateh: match statistics

I predict an Al Fateh win. The visitors sit 12th versus the hosts’ 16th and have scored 39 goals this season compared to Al Riyadh’s 32. Al Fateh averages 4.27 shots on target per away match with a 10% conversion rate, while Al Riyadh has 2.93 SOT at home and a 9% conversion, indicating higher quality chances for the visitors. Defensively both teams are vulnerable, but in the last 5 matches Al Riyadh conceded 13 goals (2.6 per match) and Al Fateh 7 (1.4 per match), despite Al Fateh conceding 1.87 goals on average away versus 1.53 conceded by hosts at home. xG also favors the visitors (xG 1.26 away vs 1.22 for the home side), and Al Fateh has a lower share of matches without scoring (20% vs 27%) and more clean sheets (20% vs 7%). Considering the visitors’ higher offensive activity, superior recent goal metrics and chance creation efficiency, I assess probabilities as 45% for Al Fateh, 30% for a draw and 25% for Al Riyadh.

BTTS is more likely: the season-long both-teams-to-score rate for the home side is 69% and for the away side 67%, both above the league average of 59%. Both teams have poor clean sheet stats — Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in only 13% of matches, Al Fateh in 20% — with Al Riyadh conceding an average of 1.63 goals per game (62 goals this season) and Al Fateh 1.87 goals per game (54 goals this season). In attack Al Riyadh record 1.44 goals and xG 1.61 with 5.19 shots on target per game, while Al Fateh record 1.07 goals and xG 1.26 with 4.27 shots on target, indicating both sides create chances. In the last 5 matches BTTS for the home team is 80% versus 60% for the away team, and in that period Al Riyadh conceded an average of 2.6 goals, further increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Based on this I assess BTTS probability at 80% and No BTTS at 20%, therefore I recommend taking "BTTS - Yes."

I project a total of 3.07 expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.67 (attack xG 1.61 and opponent xG 1.73 → average 1.67) and Al Fateh 1.40 (attack xG 1.26 and opponent xG 1.54 → 1.40). Al Riyadh averages 14.25 shots and 5.19 on target per match with a 10% conversion rate; Al Fateh averages 10.67 shots and 4.27 on target. Both teams have recorded 'both teams to score' in the season in 69% and 67% of matches respectively, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides. A Poisson model at a mean of 3.07 yields roughly an 81% probability for Over 1.5, about 59% for Over 2.5 and approximately 37% for Over 3.5; season-long Over 1.5 rates (81% for home and 73% for away) and Over 2.5 rates (56%/40%) further support a moderately high goal potential. Therefore I recommend the strongest signal as a play on Over 1.5 (≈81% chance), noting that Over 2.5 is a reasonable moderate-probability option (~59%), while Over 3.5 remains risky (~37%).

First-half statistics show Al Riyadh were trailing at the break in 50% of matches and leading in only 19%, while Al Fateh led at the break in 27% and averaged 0.6 goals by half-time versus Al Riyadh’s 0.38. In second halves, however, Al Riyadh are markedly more effective: they score on average 1.06 goals after the break, win the second half in 56% of fixtures and collect 1.88 points in that period versus the visitors’ 0.6 points. Seasonal xG also favors the hosts — 1.61 against 1.26 — and average goals per match are 1.44 for Al Riyadh and 1.07 for Al Fateh, which suggests an advantage over the full 90 minutes. On this basis the strongest and most consistent signal is the scenario where Al Fateh lead at half-time but Al Riyadh complete a turnaround and win (HT/FT 2/1), so I assigned the highest probability to that outcome. I gave smaller but notable probabilities to the draw/host win scenario (16%) and to the hosts leading from the start (1/1 = 15%), reflecting the fact that half-time draws occur in 31% of matches.