Al Tadhamon vs Al Qadsia: match statistics

Al Qadsia are favorites in this fixture due to a clear advantage in chance creation and quality of chances: the visitors average 13.14 shots per match with xG 1.57 away, versus 7.71 shots and xG 1.16 for the home side at home. The defensive gap is even more telling — Qadsia concede 1.00 goal on average away and keep a clean sheet in 57% of away matches, while Al Tadhamon concede 1.57 goals per home match and maintain a clean sheet in only 14% of games. Over the season the visitors have scored 28 goals and recorded 7 wins, compared to the hosts’ 11 goals and 3 wins, demonstrating greater efficiency and consistency from Qadsia despite similar recent form in the last 5 matches (both teams scored 8 and conceded 7). The hosts have a slightly better points return in the last 5 matches — 1.8 points per match versus 1.6 for the visitors — but this does not offset the visitors’ superiority in possession (59% vs 42%), shot volume and xG. Given these metrics, I assess an away victory as the most likely outcome.

I project BTTS - Yes at 70% vs 30% because offensive indicators and recent form favor both teams scoring. Al Tadhamon posts a season BTTS rate of 63% vs Al Qadsia’s 43%, and over the last 5 matches these are 60% and 80% respectively, indicating a strong recent trend for the visitors. Both teams’ xG are similar: 1.48 (home) vs 1.57 (away), and in the last 5 games both sides have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, increasing the likelihood of exchanged goals. Although Al Qadsia keep a clean sheet in 57% of matches, Al Tadhamon scores on average 2.5 goals per game with a 23% conversion from 5.75 shots on target (versus the opponent’s 1.14 goals and 9% conversion), so the home side can force Al Qadsia to concede. In summary: 63%/43% seasonally, 60%/80% in the last 5 and xG 1.48/1.57 provide a stronger signal for BTTS - Yes.

Statistical analysis shows both teams create a significant number of chances: xG Al Tadhamon is 1.48, xG Al Qadsia 1.57; conceded xG is 1.24 for the home side and 1.04 for the visitors, which averaged yields expected goals of 1.27 for Al Tadhamon and 1.40 for Al Qadsia (total 2.67). These values align with seasonal trends: Al Tadhamon has Over 1.5 in 88% and Over 2.5 in 75% of home matches, while Al Qadsia has Over 1.5 in 71% of fixtures; additionally, in the last 5 matches BTTS is 60% for the home team and 80% for the visitors. Moreover, the hosts have a very high shot conversion rate of 23% with 5.75 shots on target per game versus 9% and 4.43 for the away side, which increases the likelihood of actual goals exceeding xG. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 with high probability, while Over 2.5 remains moderately likely given the expected total of ~2.67 goals and the home side’s seasonal tendency toward high-scoring games.

Al Tadhamon is clearly stronger this season: the hosts score an average of 2.5 goals per game versus 1.14 for Al Qadsia and collect 2.0 points per match compared to 1.29 for their opponents. Despite similar xG (1.48 for the hosts vs 1.57 for the visitors), the hosts convert chances to goals more efficiently (23% conversion vs 9%) and register more on-target shots 5.75 vs 4.43. At half-time I expect a draw: Al Tadhamon have been level at the break in 4 matches (50%) and average 1.0 goals scored by half-time with 0.25 conceded, while the visitors score 0.71 and concede 0.57 by half-time. In the second half the hosts dominate — they average 1.5 goals after the break, have 100% of home matches with at least one goal after half-time and have won the second half in 80% of their last 5 games, therefore the half-time draw/full-time Al Tadhamon win scenario (X/1) is the most likely (36%), with the half-time/full-time 1/1 outcome the second-strongest signal (22%).