Alanyaspor vs BB Erzurumspor: match statistics

Alanyaspor have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while BB Erzurumspor have won 2, and the teams sit 5th and 13th in the table, respectively. The hosts average 1.5 goals and 3.5 shots on target per home match, compared with just 0.33 goals and 1.67 shots on target for the visitors away from home. The difference in the quality of chances created is reflected in the average xG: 1.48 for Alanyaspor at home and 0.80 for Erzurumspor away. The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals on the road and have yet to keep a clean sheet away from home, although their opponents’ xG of 1.68 suggests that the number of goals conceded may partly be down to poor goalkeeping. Alanyaspor are still unbeaten at home, while Erzurumspor have yet to win away, making a home win the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to the visitors failing to score: they average just 0.33 goals away from home and draw a blank in 67% of such matches. Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their home games, while Erzurumspor’s away xG is just 0.80. The hosts are more likely to score, with an average home xG of 1.21, while the visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home. Erzurumspor have averaged 0.6 goals over their last five matches, and both teams scored in only 20% of their games. Although Alanyaspor have seen that outcome in 60% of their last five matches, the visitors’ poor finishing makes BTTS - No more likely. This means at least one team is expected not to score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line was not exceeded in any of the analyzed BB Erzurumspor matches, and in 67% of Alanyaspor’s matches. The visitors score just 0.33 goals on average and record 1.67 shots on target per match, limiting their projected contribution to the score. Alanyaspor are more likely to find the net, with an average xG of 1.21, while their opponents concede an average of 2.33 goals. Although the visitors’ weaker defense increases the risk of a higher-scoring game, the expected total of 2.25 goals remains comfortably below the selected line.

The strongest signal in favor of Alanyaspor leading at the break is their home record: they were ahead at half-time in 2 of 3 matches, while BB Erzurumspor failed to score before the break in any of their three away games. The hosts average 3.33 shots on target per match compared with the visitors’ 1.67, and their xG stands at 1.21 against their opponents’ 0.80, supporting their advantage over the full match as well. BB Erzurumspor concede an average of 2.33 goals per away match, including 1.67 after half-time, so even with the hosts’ modest attacking output, holding on to a lead appears the most likely outcome. A draw at half-time followed by an Alanyaspor win remains a significant alternative: in their last 5 matches, the hosts were level at the break 4 times and won the second half 4 times. Nevertheless, the hosts’ advantage in the home-match data and the visitors’ failure to score away before half-time give a slight edge to the scenario in which Alanyaspor lead at the break and go on to win (1/1).