Alianza Atlético vs FC Cajamarca: match statistics

Alianza Atlético has a clear home advantage: they concede only 0.57 goals per game at home and keep a clean sheet in 57% of home matches, while FC Cajamarca concedes 1.75 goals away and has no clean sheets on the road. The hosts create more chances — 12.71 shots per game and 5 on target with xG 1.41 at their own ground; the visitors average 8 shots, 2.63 on target and xG 0.90 away. Efficiency also favors the hosts: shot conversion is 11% versus 9% for Cajamarca, and the share of matches without scoring is 43% for the hosts and 63% for the visitors on the road. In the last 5 matches Alianza scored 7 goals (form 2-1-2, 1.4 points per game), while Cajamarca scored 9 goals and won 3 of 5 (1.8 points per game); however the visitors’ overall away metrics are poor — only 13% wins and 75% losses on the road. Considering the hosts’ superior defensive record at home, higher quantity and quality of chances (xG 1.41 vs 0.90) and Cajamarca’s weak away indicators, I assess the probabilities as 65% for the hosts, 20% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.

Alianza Atlético has a season BTTS rate of 86% with goals scored avg 2.14 and goals conceded avg 1.71, indicating their matches very frequently end Goal/Goal. FC Cajamarca has a lower season BTTS 38% and goals scored avg 0.75, but in the last 5 matches the away side has BTTS 80% and scores 1.8 goals on avg while conceding 1.4, so the opponent’s recent form increases the likelihood of a goal. Additionally, Alianza averages 11.43 shots and 4.71 shots on target per match with xG 1.27, while Cajamarca only 8.0 shots and 2.63 shots on target with xG 0.90; this suggests Alianza’s superiority in chance creation but does not eliminate the visitors’ chances. Both teams have high xG against values (1.58 for Alianza and 1.62 for Cajamarca) and season clean sheet percentages of 0%, and the league has an overall BTTS rate of 56% and goals avg 2.66, which further supports the Both Teams To Score - Yes option. Considering Alianza’s very strong seasonal signal (86%), the lack of clean sheets (0% for both) and Cajamarca’s solid scoring form in the last 5 matches (1.8 goals and 80% BTTS), I forecast 'BTTS - Yes' at 68% vs 32%.

Alianza Atlético scores an average of 2.14 goals per match with xG 1.27, while FC Cajamarca averages 0.75 goals and xG 0.90; hosts concede 1.71 goals and visitors 1.75. Matching attack xG with defense xG (1.27 vs 1.62 and 0.90 vs 1.58) yields expected ~1.45 goals for Alianza and 1.24 for Cajamarca, totaling ~2.69 goals. Hosts average 11.43 shots and 4.71 on target with a conversion rate of 19%, visitors 8.0 shots and 2.63 on target with a 9% conversion, which increases the likelihood of goals from the hosts. Seasonal rates show Over 1.5 in 86% of hosts' matches and 63% of away matches, and Over 2.5 in 71% of hosts' matches and 50% for visitors; therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Considering the projected 2.69 goals and a clear home attacking edge, I recommend backing Over 1.5.

I back a Half-Time draw and an Alianza Atlético Full-Time victory (X/1), because the hosts lead at the break in only 29% of matches, while averaging 1.57 goals in second halves versus just 0.5 for FC Cajamarca, which favors a turnaround after the break. Seasonally Alianza score 2.14 goals per game with an xG of 1.27, whereas the visitors have 0.75 goals and an xG of 0.90; the hosts also register more shots (11.43 vs 8.0), more shots on target (4.71 vs 2.63) and have a higher conversion rate (19% vs 9%), indicating greater offensive efficiency. Second-half metrics reinforce this edge: in 86% of the hosts’ matches at least one goal is scored after the break, and in minutes 76–90 Alianza have netted 6 goals compared to 2 for the visitors. FC Cajamarca have a better short run (last 5: 'llwww', 60% wins in the last five), but season-long they score only 0.75 goals and average 0.5 points per match, so they lack the stability to withstand second-half pressure. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is X/1 and I assign the highest probability to that scenario.