Alianza Atlético vs UTC Cajamarca: match statistics

Alianza Atlético are significantly more effective at home, averaging 1.64 goals per match, while UTC Cajamarca concede as many as 2.17 goals away from home. The hosts have won 55% of their home matches and lost only 9%, whereas the visitors have been defeated in 67% of their away games and have kept not a single clean sheet. The difference is also reflected in the quality of chances created: Alianza’s average home xG stands at 1.59, compared with UTC’s 1.51 xG against away from home. Current form also favors the hosts, who have scored 10 goals and won 3 of their last 5 matches, while UTC have suffered 4 defeats during that period, with a 5:13 goal difference and just 0.2 points per match. UTC are capable of scoring an average of 1.17 goals away from home, so completely ruling out a goal for the visitors would be risky; however, Alianza’s advantage should be enough to secure victory.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as BTTS has occurred in 58% of Alianza Atlético’s matches this season and as many as 67% of UTC Cajamarca’s, compared with the league average of 57%. Both teams are reinforcing this trend with their current form: BTTS has landed in 80% of each side’s last 5 matches. UTC have not kept a clean sheet once this season and concede an average of 2.17 goals per match, rising to 2.6 goals across their last five appearances, which significantly increases the hosts’ chances of scoring. Alianza have averaged 2.0 goals recently, while UTC create approximately 1.41 xG per match against Alianza’s 1.43 xG conceded, giving the visitors a realistic basis for finding the net as well. The BTTS scenario is more likely than either team failing to score, although 33% of the hosts’ matches end with a clean sheet, which limits confidence in the pick.

Alianza Atlético are in clearly better attacking form: they have averaged 2.0 goals in their last five matches, while UTC Cajamarca have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match of the season, and their average of 2.17 goals conceded further strengthens the hosts’ attacking potential. Both teams have recorded goals for both sides in 80% of their last five matches, while their average xG stands at 1.43 for Alianza and 1.41 for UTC. Over 1.5 goals has been recorded in 67% of the hosts’ matches and in as many as 92% of UTC’s away games, making Over 1.5 the market with the strongest and most consistent statistical support.

Alianza Atlético has a clear first-half advantage: they average 0.58 goals scored and concede just 0.33, while UTC Cajamarca score only 0.17 and allow 1.00 goal on average. The hosts led at the break in 33% of their matches and were behind at half-time in only 8%, whereas the visitors have never gone into the interval with the lead and were trailing at the break in 58% of games. Current form further favors Alianza: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding 1.2, while UTC have lost 4 of their last 5 fixtures and conceded 2.6 goals per game on average. After the break, the hosts improved their attacking output to 1.2 goals per match across their last five appearances, while UTC conceded as many as 1.8 goals in this period. The scenario of Alianza leading at half-time and securing the full-time victory is therefore best supported by both the difference in how the teams start matches and their current form.