Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua: match statistics

I back the home win ('1') because Alianza Lima averages 3.2 goals per home game and has a 100% home win rate (9 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses). Defensively the hosts are very solid: they concede just 0.4 goals on average at home and kept a clean sheet in 60% of matches, whereas UCV Moquegua concedes 1.83 goals on average away and has only a 17% clean sheet rate. In attack and chance quality Alianza holds a clear advantage — 20 shots per game (8 on target) at home versus 9.17 (3.5 on target) for the visitors, with home xG 2.12 vs away xG 1.02. Trends confirm the gap: Alianza scored 12 goals in the last 5 matches and won 4 of 5 (at home a 5/5 run), UCV have 9 goals in the last 5 and 3 wins, but 67% of their away games end without scoring. Based on this I estimate the probabilities as 80% home win, 12% draw and 8% away win.

I back 'No' (both teams not to score). UCV averages only 0.50 goals per game this season and fail to score in 67% of matches, which significantly reduces their likelihood of finding the net. Alianza average 1.83 goals at home with xG 1.21 and a high shot conversion rate of 17%, so the hosts should score, but defensively they have conceded only 5 goals at home this season and just 1 goal in their last 5 home matches (0.2 per game), increasing the probability of a clean sheet. Season-long BTTS rates show 67% for Alianza and 33% for UCV against a league average of 56%, but recent form diverges: Alianza have 0% BTTS in their last 5 matches while UCV have 80% in their last five, indicating a split between season metrics and current form. Considering UCV’s low goals average (0.5), their 67% rate of matches without scoring, and Alianza’s defensive home form (5 goals conceded this season and 0.2 in the last 5), I estimate BTTS probability at ~30% for 'Yes' and ~70% for 'No'.

Alianza Lima averages 1.83 goals per match this season with an xG of 1.21; in the last 5 matches they average 2.4 goals and have conceded only 1 goal in total (0.2 avg), indicating strong home form. UCV Moquegua averages 0.5 goals and xG 1.02 this season and concedes 1.83 goals per match; additionally UCV’s shot conversion is 5% versus Alianza’s 17%, which limits the visitors’ attacking threat. Historically 83% of Alianza’s home matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, and 67% of UCV’s away matches were Over 2.5, so the primary signal points to Over 2.5, although Alianza’s last 5 matches show only 20% >2.5, which reduces confidence somewhat. Considering these figures I expect about 1.80 goals for the home side and 0.90 for the away side (total 2.70), so the strongest and most confident bet appears to be Over 1.5 (I estimate ~86% probability). Over 3.5 is unlikely — only 17% of both teams’ matches this season exceeded 3.5 goals, giving it roughly an 18% probability.

At half-time a draw is most likely — Alianza had HT draws in 50% of matches, led at the break in only 17% of fixtures, while visitors led at the break in 33%. First-half goals are low: both home and away average 0.33 goals before the break, so a typical HT score is 0-0 or 1-1. After the break the home side holds the advantage — they average 2.17 goals in second halves, have earned 11 points from second-half performance (equivalent to 1.83 points per match in the second half), and 6 of their goals came in minutes 46–60. Seasonally Alianza scores 1.83 goals versus 0.5 for the visitors, posts higher xG (1.21 vs 1.02) and superior shot conversion (17% vs 5%), therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home turnaround to win the match (X/1).