Alianza Petrolera vs Deportes Tolima: match statistics

I predict an away win (2): Deportes Tolima have 33 goals this season versus Alianza Petrolera’s 14, indicating a clear offensive advantage. Tolima are more efficient — shot-to-goal conversion on the road is 10% vs Alianza’s 7% at home, with shots on target per game 3.45 vs 3.2. xG and defensive metrics show some balance: Alianza at home average xG for 1.27 and concede 1.00 goals per game (xG against 1.17), whereas Tolima away post xG for 1.10 but concede 1.18 goals on average (xG against 1.36). In the short term Tolima have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.4 points per game over those five, while Alianza scored 6 and conceded 5 in the same period, averaging 1.0 point per game. Considering Tolima’s 11 wins versus Alianza’s 3 this season and the higher conversion rate (33 goals and 10% vs 14 goals and 7%), I assess the away win as most likely, although Alianza’s high home draw rate (60%) leaves a realistic chance of a shared points outcome.

In the last 5 matches both teams scored in 60% of cases (3 of 5), versus season-long rates of 46% for Alianza and 45% for Tolima, indicating recent form increases the risk of goals from both sides. Alianza averages 1.69 goals and xG 1.61 per match with 5.31 shots on target, and their xG_for 1.61 exceeds Tolima’s defensive xG 1.36, so the home side has a realistic scoring potential. Tolima has xG_for 1.1 and scores 1.0 goals on average this season, and their xG_for 1.1 equals the xG against Alianza at 1.1, so statistically they have a real chance to score, despite failing to score in 36% of matches this season. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Alianza conceded 1.0 goals on average (vs season 0.69), and Tolima conceded 1.6 goals (vs season 1.18), showing both teams have recently been more prone to conceding. Considering strong recent BTTS indicators (60% for both), Alianza’s advantage in chance creation (5.31 shots on target) and Tolima’s matched xG (1.1 vs 1.1), I indicate BTTS - Yes with a moderate probability of 60% vs 40%.

The xG-based model yields 1.49 expected goals for Alianza Petrolera (averaging xG attack 1.61 and Tolima defense 1.36) and 1.10 for Deportes Tolima (averaging xG attack 1.10 and home defense 1.10), totaling 2.59 goals. At this aggregate, a Poisson distribution estimates probability of Over 1.5 goals at ~73%, Over 2.5 at ~48% and Over 3.5 at ~26%. Seasonal metrics confirm a moderate lean toward 2+ goal matches: hosts have Over 1.5 in 69% of games and Over 2.5 in 38%, visitors have Over 1.5 in 73% and Over 2.5 in 27%, while Over 3.5 occurs only in 23–27% of cases. Additionally, Alianza concedes only 0.69 goals at home on average and Tolima concedes 1.18 on the road, which limits the probability of a high-scoring game; although Tolima’s last 5 matches show Over 2.5 in 80%, this short-term sample conflicts with the seasonal value of 27%. In light of these data the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (probability ~74%), therefore I recommend betting the Under at the 3.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1). Alianza Petrolera shows a clear advantage after the break — they score on average 1.00 goals in the second half versus 0.27 for Deportes Tolima and in 92% of matches they score at least one goal after half-time. Seasonal numbers confirm the home advantage: Alianza scores 1.69 goals per match on average versus 1.00 for Tolima, has an xG of 1.61 vs 1.10 and collects 2.23 points per match compared to 1.00 for the visitors. At half-time the situation is relatively balanced — the home side led at the break in 46% of fixtures, the visitors in 45%, and the home team keeps a clean sheet at the break in 85% of matches, which favors low first-half scores. Additionally, Alianza averages 5.31 shots on target versus 3.45 for Tolima and has better defense (0.69 conceded goals per match vs 1.18 for Tolima), therefore I assign the highest probability to the X/1 scenario (35%) and alternatively 1/1 (30%).