Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto: match statistics

Deportivo Pasto has a clear advantage in seasonal metrics: 8 wins versus 2 for Alianza Petrolera and 21 goals scored versus 7, indicating superior offensive efficiency. Away, Pasto averages 1.5 goals, 13 shots and 4.33 on target with 12% conversion, while Alianza at home scores 0.83 goals, registers 11.17 shots and 3.5 on target with a 7% conversion. The hosts’ defense is slightly more solid in home matches (1.0 goals conceded on average and 33% clean sheets) compared to Pasto away (1.83 conceded and 17% clean sheets), but xG shows Pasto both creates and converts chances (xG 1.33 vs 1.5 goals), whereas Alianza underperforms their xG (1.25 xG vs 0.83 goals). In the last 5 matches Pasto scored 9 goals and averages 1.8 points, while Alianza has 4 goals and 1.6 points, confirming the visitors’ superior offensive form. Considering better conversion, higher shot volume and a greater win rate for the visitors, I predict a Deportivo Pasto win; probabilities: home 15%, draw 30%, away 55%.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 50% for Alianza and 67% for Pasto (avg ~58%) against a league BTTS level of 56%, providing an initial signal for BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches Pasto scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and had BTTS in 60%, while Alianza scored 4 goals (0.8) with BTTS in 40%, indicating Pasto's advantage in chance creation. Pasto has over 2.5 goals in 83% of matches and a combined over 2.5 + BTTS rate of 67%; they average 4.33 shots on target versus Alianza's 3.63, and last 5-match xG is 1.38 (Pasto) vs 0.92 (Alianza), all of which increase the likelihood of goals from both sides. The counterpoint is Alianza's high clean sheet rate of 50% and a low home goals conceded average of 0.75, but Pasto concedes 1.83 goals seasonally and has only 17% clean sheets, so they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet alone. Considering Pasto's offensive activity, higher BTTS and over 2.5 rates, plus superior xG and SOT values, I assess BTTS probability at 62% (Yes) vs 38% (No).

Average xG indicates 1.37 for Alianza (xG for 1.43 vs xG against guests 1.30) and 1.24 for Deportivo Pasto (xG for 1.33 vs xG against hosts 1.16), totaling ~2.61 expected goals. With an expected total of 2.61 the Poisson model gives about a 73% chance of ≥2 goals (Over 1.5), ~48% for ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~27% for ≥4 goals (Over 3.5). These figures align with seasonal trends: both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals (Alianza 75%, Pasto 83%), and Pasto has as many as 83% of matches over 2.5 while Alianza only 38%, which explains the marginal outcome for the 2.5 line. Additionally, Pasto scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches (1.8 average) versus 4 goals for Alianza (0.8), and both teams scored in 50% of the hosts' matches and in 67% of Pasto's matches, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Therefore the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (73%), while 2.5 is a coin toss and 3.5 clearly favors the Under.

I expect a draw at half-time — the hosts were level at the break in 63% of their home matches and average 0.75 goals scored by HT with only 0.25 conceded (drawingAtHT_home 63%, scoredAVGHT_home 0.75, concededAVGHT_home 0.25). Alianza Petrolera have a strong home record: they win 63% of matches and average 1.5 goals scored at home with 0.75 conceded (winPercentage_home 63%, seasonScoredAVG_home 1.5, seasonConcededAVG_home 0.75), while Deportivo Pasto concedes an average of 1.83 goals per match (seasonConcededAVG_away 1.83). Additionally, xG slightly favors the hosts — xG_for 1.43 versus the visitors’ 1.33 — and the hosts perform better after the break (they have earned 13 points in second halves and average 1.25 goals after the break, points_2hg_home 13, AVG_2hg_home 1.25). Consequently, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a home win (X/1), so I assign that scenario the highest probability at 30%, with significant alternatives 1/1 (22%) and X/X (18%).