Alianza Petrolera vs Fortaleza CEIF: match statistics

The hosts have a superior defense at home — conceding on average 1.00 goal per home match with 33% clean sheets, while the visitors concede 1.89 goals away and register only 11% clean sheets. Alianza Petrolera score 0.78 goals per home match, record 3.11 shots on target and have an xG of 1.24, whereas Fortaleza score 0.89 goals away, have an xG of 1.07 and higher shot efficiency (around 9% versus the hosts' 7%). In the last 5 matches both teams have scored 7 goals, but Fortaleza has a better points rate (1.6 pts per match vs 1.0 for the hosts) and form of 2-2-1, while Alianza sit at 1-2-2. Crucially, the visitors have not recorded an away win (win% 0 away) and have a negative away goal difference (-9), which limits their ability to secure a win. Considering the high share of home draws (56%), similar xG and generally low finishing efficiency for both sides, the most likely scenario is a point split.

Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: Alianza Petrolera 80% vs Fortaleza CEIF 67%, with both at 60% in the last 5 matches. Alianza scores an average of 1.4 goals at home with xG 1.44 and records 4.4 shots on target per match, while Fortaleza concedes an average of 1.89 goals away with xG against 1.37, favoring home goals. Fortaleza has improved form recently — seasonally they score 0.89 goals away, but in the last 5 matches they averaged 1.4 goals with last5 xG 1.51, and Alianza conceded 1.2 goals on average in those 5 matches. Clean sheets are also rare (Alianza 20% matches without conceding, Fortaleza 11%) and the league BTTS rate is 53% with an average of 2.53 goals per match, so the numbers point clearly toward a Goal/Goal scenario. Based on the data, the strongest signal is BTTS - Yes (high 80% vs 67% seasonal BTTS, solid xG 1.44 and low 20%/11% clean sheets).

Combined xG indicates 1.41 for the home side ((1.44 + 1.37)/2) and 1.04 for the visitors ((1.07 + 1.02)/2), totaling 2.45 expected goals. Both teams show high percentages of matches with over 1.5 goals: Alianza 90% at home and Fortaleza 78% overall, while BTTS rates are 80% (Alianza) and 67% (Fortaleza), which strongly favors at least two goals in the match. The 2.5 line is less convincing: season Over 2.5 is 50% for Alianza and 44% for Fortaleza, and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred 60% (Alianza) and 40% (Fortaleza) — therefore I estimate Over 2.5 at about 54% probability. The 3.5 line has weak support (0% season for the home team, 33% for the visitors), so Over 3.5 is only ~18% chance. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I assess 86% vs 14%), therefore I recommend backing the over on the 1.5 line as the most profitable and statistically justified option.

The home side draw at half-time in 60% of their matches, while Fortaleza CEIF has never led at the break (0%), so a draw at half-time is the most likely scenario. Alianza Petrolera holds a clear attacking edge: on average 1.4 goals per match versus the visitors’ 0.89, xG 1.44 versus 1.07 and 4.4 shots on target versus the visitors’ 2.67 — this increases their chances of scoring after the break. In the second half the hosts especially often decide matches: 90% of their games feature at least one goal after half-time, and between the 76th and 90th minutes they have scored 8 goals while conceding only 3 in that interval, which supports a turnaround from an HT draw to a full-time win. Seasonal records underscore the home advantage — 50% wins and 1.8 points per game for the hosts compared to 0% wins and 0.44 points per game for the visitors — hence a higher probability of a home victory by full-time. On that basis I tip X/1 (draw at Half-Time, Alianza Petrolera win at Full-Time) as the primary scenario, listing 1/1 and X/X as less likely alternatives.