Alianza vs FAS: match statistics

FAS appears the clear favorite based on superior efficiency and form: the visitors have scored 15 goals in their last 5 matches versus Alianza’s 9 and have won 4 of those 5 games while Alianza won 2. Across the season FAS has 93 goals compared to Alianza’s 76; away they average 2.1 goals with xG 1.55, while Alianza at home averages 1.76 goals with xG 1.42, giving the visitors an offensive edge. Alianza posts higher possession (57% vs 52%) and a better home win rate (57% vs 48% of FAS away wins), but both teams concede 1.24 goals per match on average, so defenses are comparable. FAS attempts more shots and shots on target (10.6 and 5.2 vs 9.57 and 4.48), has better conversion (20% vs 18%) and a superior away goal difference (GD 18 vs GD 11 for Alianza). Considering PPG 2.4 vs 1.6 in the last 5 matches and advantages in xG and finishing, I tip the away win.

I predict BTTS 'Yes' at 66% and 'No' at 34% — pick: 'yes'. FAS averages 2.1 goals away (seasonScoredAVG_away 2.1) and has a season BTTS rate of 57%, so they have strong potential to score at least once. Alianza averages 2.33 goals and concedes only 0.76 at home seasonally, but in the last 5 matches they had BTTS in 80% of games and conceded on average 1.6 goals, indicating defensive weakening. Season xG is similar (1.58 Alianza vs 1.55 FAS), and in the last 5 FAS has xG_for 1.94 versus Alianza xG_against 1.82, so FAS is creating real chances against a leaky defense. Considering Alianza season BTTS 52%, FAS 57% and the league 54%, together with recent form and goal numbers, the Both Teams To Score scenario appears more likely.

Alianza averages 2.33 goals per match, FAS 2.10, with xG of 1.58 (Alianza) and 1.55 (FAS), indicating offensive intent from both sides. Season rates of matches over 1.5 goals are 81% for Alianza and 90% for FAS (avg ≈85.5%), while only 5% of Alianza matches and 19% of FAS matches end 0:0, so at least two goals are very likely. I estimate expected goals as the average of a team’s attack and the opponent’s defense: home 1.48 (1.58 vs 1.37), away 1.31 (1.55 vs 1.06), total 2.79 goals. In the last 5 matches FAS scored 15 goals (3.0 avg), Alianza 9 goals (1.8 avg), and both teams have 80% of recent matches over 2.5, which supports a goals-heavy outlook. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (clear season 81%/90% and projected 2.79 goals); Over 2.5 also looks likely (~68%), while Over 3.5 is less convincing (~44%).

Alianza shows a clear lead at the break: they were leading at half-time in 12 matches (57%), score on average 1.14 goals by half-time and concede only 0.29, whereas FAS registers 0.8 goals and concedes 0.6 before the break. Over full matches the home side win 81% of their home games and average 2.33 goals scored with 0.76 conceded, while FAS have a 48% win rate and average 2.1/1.24 (scored/conceded), which supports Alianza maintaining the lead. The xG of both teams is similar (1.58 versus 1.55), but Alianza’s defense looks stronger (xG against 1.06 vs 1.37), increasing the likelihood of seeing the result held after half-time. Alianza have also scored 18 goals in minutes 76–90, showing an ability to decide games in the second half; although FAS won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%), they lead at half-time in only 30% of games, so the strongest signal is the 1/1 scenario (lead at the break and home win).