All Boys vs Almirante Brown: match statistics

Based on the data, a draw has the highest probability: All Boys draw 67% of home matches, while Almirante Brown win away only 22% of the time, which raises the likelihood of a shared points outcome. The home side display a very solid home defense — conceding on average 0.33 goals per match, with 67% clean sheets and a +3 home goal difference; conversely, the visitors concede 0.67 goals on average away and have a -2 goal difference. In attack All Boys create better chances: average xG at home is 1.43 with 3.56 shots on target per match, yet they score only 0.67 goals per match, while Almirante away have xG 1.08, 2.22 shots on target and only 0.44 goals per match — this indicates both teams have low finishing rates, but the hosts generate more opportunities. Recent form over the last five matches favors the visitors in momentum: Almirante have scored 6 goals and won 3 of their last 5 (2.0 points per match on average), while All Boys have scored 4 goals and won 1 of their last 5 (1.2 points per match on average), giving the visitors a chance to upset. Considering the hosts' defensive edge and the visitors' recent form, I forecast a draw; probability distribution: draw 45%, home win 35%, away win 20%.

Season-long indicators strongly argue against BTTS: All Boys have BTTS in 30% of matches, Almirante Brown in 22%, while the league average is 40%, so both teams are below the league norm. High clean sheet rates (All Boys 50%, Almirante 56%, league 77%) and a low league goals average of 1.87 suggest matches often end with one or no scorers. Season goal averages are 1.0 for All Boys and 0.44 for Almirante with conceded rates of 0.6 and 0.67; although All Boys generate more xG (1.53 vs 1.08), more shots (11.2 vs 9.0) and more shots on target (3.6 vs 2.22), conversion rates are low (9% vs 5%). In the last 5 matches Almirante shows better offensive metrics (xG 1.71 vs 1.0 and on average 1.2 vs 0.8 goals), which provides a short-term signal toward BTTS, but the season-long low BTTS and high clean sheet percentages prevail, hence the recommendation: No (approx. 70%).

xG and seasonal averages indicate a low-scoring game: home xG is 1.53 versus away 1.08, but seasonal goals averages are only 1.0 (All Boys) and 0.44 (Almirante Brown), so I project 1.00 goals for the home side and 0.60 for the away, totaling 1.60. Seasonal percentages of matches with ≥3 goals are just 20% for All Boys and 22% for Almirante Brown, yielding roughly a 21–22% chance of Over 2.5 in this fixture. Additionally, conversion rates are low (9% vs 5%) and average on-target shots are 3.6 vs 2.22, so even with moderate xG the conversion to goals is limited. In short-term form Almirante has higher recent xG (1.71) and more goals in the last 5 matches (6 vs 4), which slightly raises the goal risk, but the overall seasonal profile still favors a low-scoring outcome. Based on this I recommend Under 2.5 as the best option — estimated probability about 78% for Under 2.5 and 22% for Over 2.5.

I expect a draw at half-time because All Boys are level at the break in 80% of their matches; first-half goals average 0.3 for the home side and 0.33 for Almirante Brown, and season first-half clean sheets are 70% for All Boys and 89% for the visitors, indicating a low HT score (often 0-0). After the break the home side’s strength increases: All Boys score on average 0.7 goals in the second half versus 0.11 for Almirante Brown and have 80% of their matches with at least 0.5 goals after the break (vs 44% for the visitors). Additionally, All Boys have higher xG (1.53 vs 1.08), more shots on target (3.6 vs 2.22) and better conversion (9% vs 5%), which raises the likelihood of them scoring the decisive goal in the second half. For these reasons the most probable HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win (X/1).