All Boys vs Los Andes: match statistics

Los Andes are the favorites based on overall record and form: they have 6 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses with a goal difference of 12:4 this season, while All Boys have 3 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses and a 8:15 record. In the last five matches Los Andes scored 6 goals and won 3 of 5 (3W, 2D), while All Boys scored 4 goals and won only 1 of 5 (1W, 1D, 3L), which translates to an average of 2.2 points per game for the visitors versus 0.8 for the hosts. Los Andes’ away efficiency is higher: on average 1.2 goals per game with 14% shot conversion and 4.0 shots on target, whereas All Boys at home average 0.71 goals, 6% conversion and 3.71 shots on target. Both defenses are solid, but the visitors concede 0.2 goals away and keep clean sheets in 80% of away matches versus 0.29 and 71% for the hosts; additionally All Boys fail to score in 43% of home games, while Los Andes are shut out in only 20% of away fixtures. Considering superior efficiency, higher points per game in form and the favorable goal difference, I predict a Los Andes victory.

The BTTS scenario appears unlikely: All Boys have BTTS at 11% while Los Andes at 20%, with clean sheet rates of 67% and 80% respectively. In the last 5 matches All Boys scored 4 and conceded 9 goals (avg 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded per game), whereas Los Andes scored 6 and conceded 1 (avg 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded), strongly favoring a clean sheet for Los Andes. All Boys average 0.67 goals at home with xG 1.46 (i.e. they create xG 1.46 but finish poorly), while Los Andes average 1.2 goals with xG 1.28 and a higher shot conversion rate of 14% versus All Boys’ 6%. Considering the league average goals of 1.87 and a high league clean sheet rate of 79%, I estimate BTTS probability at approximately 20% and No BTTS at 80%; therefore the best pick is "no".

The analysis is based on xG: All Boys xG_for 1.46 and Los Andes xG_for 1.28 with xG_against of 1.10 (All Boys) and 1.80 (Los Andes). The hosts’ attack average combined with the opponent’s defense yields expected goals of 1.63 for All Boys and 1.19 for Los Andes, totaling 2.82 expected goals. From a Poisson distribution, 2.82 translates to ~77% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~53% chance of at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~31% chance of at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). However, seasonal constraints must be considered: All Boys score only 0.67 goals on average with a shot conversion rate of 6%, and both teams have high clean sheet rates of 67% and 80%, which weakens the high-scoring signal. Considering the xG advantage and Los Andes’ form (6 goals for and 1 conceded in the last 5 matches), the strongest and safest signal from the data is Over 1.5.

The strongest signal is the advantage for Los Andes: the away side led at the break in 60% of matches and won 60% of all games, with no defeats (0% losses). In first halves Los Andes average 0.6 goals while All Boys average 0.22, and the visitors do not concede at the break (0.0 vs 0.11); this confirms the visitors’ advantage in the opening phase. Although All Boys register more shots (11.44 vs 8.6) and have higher xG (1.46 vs 1.28), their conversion rate is 6% versus 14% for Los Andes, so the visitors create fewer chances but are more efficient. Based on this the most likely Half-Time/Full-Time outcome is Los Andes leading at the break and the away team winning (2/2) — I assign this scenario a 40% probability; alternatives are draw then away win (X/2 20%), draw-draw (X/X 20%) and visitors leading at the break then drawing (2/X 20%). The high percentages of clean sheets at the break (89% home, 100% away) indicate a low first-half goal count and narrow, decisive wins, which further supports the selected scenario.