Almagro vs Gimnasia Jujuy: match statistics

Almagro have clearly superior home figures: they win 46% of their matches, while Gimnasia Jujuy win only 23% of their away games and lose as many as 46%. The hosts concede just 0.69 goals per match on average at home and keep a clean sheet in 46% of their appearances, contrasting with the visitors’ 1.77 goals conceded and just 8% clean sheets. Almagro also create slightly higher-quality chances, recording an average xG of 1.24 compared with Gimnasia’s 1.13, while the hosts’ opponents are limited to a lower xG than the visitors’ opponents: 1.38 versus 1.71. Both teams have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last five matches, but Almagro have conceded only 5 goals during this period, compared with Gimnasia’s 8. The hosts’ poor finishing, having scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, increases the likelihood of a draw, but their more solid home defense gives them the edge.

The BTTS tip is primarily undermined by Almagro’s poor current scoring form, having scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. The hosts’ BTTS rate during this period was only 20%, while Gimnasia Jujuy recorded 40%, both clearly below their season figures of 57% and 62%, respectively. Gimnasia Jujuy have failed to score in 38% of their league matches, and away from home they average just 2.92 shots on target compared with Almagro’s 5.71. The hosts are certainly dangerous at home, averaging 1.86 goals with an xG of 1.92, but their opponents concede an average of 1.77 goals, which points more towards an Almagro win to nil than goals for both sides. In addition, only 40% of matches in the league have seen both teams score, with an average of 1.94 goals, making it more likely that at least one of the teams will fail to score.

The strongest signal is the low frequency of very high-scoring results: more than 3.5 goals were scored in only 14% of Almagro’s matches and 23% of Gimnasia Jujuy’s games. Almagro have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, and none of those matches produced more than 2.5 goals. Gimnasia Jujuy have recently conceded 1.6 goals per game, but their scoring average was only 1.0, which limits the potential for an open game. The hosts do have a better season xG, 1.92 compared with the opponents’ 1.13, but the league average of 1.94 goals and just 32% of matches going Over 2.5 goals point towards a controlled rather than high-scoring scenario. The projected total of 2.20 goals leaves a clear edge on the Under 3.5 goals side.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time and an Almagro victory at the final whistle, as Gimnasia Jujuy were level at the break in 62% of their matches, compared with 29% for Almagro. The teams’ last five matches were very cautious before half-time: the hosts failed to score a single first-half goal, while the visitors averaged just 0.2 goals. After the break, however, Almagro’s advantage is clear: they average 1.29 goals scored and concede just 0.29, whereas Gimnasia concede as many as 1.38 goals. Across the season, Almagro win 71% of their matches, score an average of 1.86 goals and allow opponents just 0.71, compared with Gimnasia’s win rate of only 23% and 1.77 goals conceded per match. The quality of chances created also points to the hosts, whose average xG stands at 1.92 versus 1.13 for the visitors.