Almería vs CD Castellón: match statistics

Almería holds a clear statistical advantage at home: they average 2.48 goals per match at their stadium and win 71% of home games, while CD Castellón averages 1.33 goals on the road and wins 33% of away fixtures. The hosts create slightly better chances — Almería’s average xG is 1.93 versus Castellón’s 1.68 xG away — and they attempt more shots (17.38 vs 14.24) with more shots on target (6.67 vs 5.1). Defensively Castellón performs marginally better, conceding 1.24 goals on average away compared to Almería’s 1.43 conceded at home, but the difference is small and the hosts rarely finish goalless (5% of matches without a goal vs 29% for visitors). Recent form over the last five matches reduces the home advantage — Almería have scored only 4 goals and average 1 point per game in the last 5, while Castellón have scored 6 goals and average 1.8 points per game, remaining unbeaten in that period. Considering Almería’s strong home attack (2.48 goals), higher shot conversion (14%) and overall superiority in chance creation, but also their poorer recent form, I forecast a home win: 60% Almería, 25% draw and 15% Castellón win.

Statistical analysis strongly favors BTTS: Almería has a season BTTS 68%, CD Castellón 57%, versus a league average of 56%, with last 5 matches at 60% (Almería) and 80% (Castellón). Both teams regularly score and concede — Almería averages 1.95 goals for and 1.18 against per match, Castellón 1.33 for and 1.24 against; season totals 82 GF and 64 GA for Almería and 71 GF and 52 GA for Castellón. xG values confirm the attacking potential: xG for 1.83 for Almería vs 1.68 for Castellón, with xG against 1.13 and 1.15, and in the last 5 matches Castellón has xG for 2.09 and scored 6 goals versus Almería’s 4. Shot and conversion stats indicate chances for both sides — Almería averages 16.09 shots (5.27 on target) with a 12% conversion, Castellón 14.24 shots (5.10 on target) with a 9% conversion, and clean sheets are rare: 23% for Almería and 33% for Castellón (meaning they concede in ~77% and ~67% of matches). Although Castellón failed to score in 29% of their season matches (Almería only 9%), the overall profile (league average 2.63 goals per match) and prevailing offensive signals support BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% and No 28%.

Based on xG and defensive metrics, I estimate Almería will score about 1.49 goals (attack xG 1.83 vs. opponent xG conceded 1.15) and CD Castellón about 1.41 goals (attack xG 1.68 vs. conceded xG 1.13), giving a total of ~2.90 goals. Almería had over 1.5 in 86% of matches this season, Castellón in 67% — average 76.5% — and the expected 2.90 clearly favors Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, season Over rates are 50% (Almería) and 48% (Castellón), average ~49%; our 2.90 goals is only +0.40 above the 2.5 threshold, so Over 2.5 holds only a moderate edge. Over 3.5 looks weaker: season Over 3.5 rates are 36% and 43% (average ~39.5%), and the expected 2.90 is below 3.5, so Under 3.5 is more likely. Additionally, the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 68% (Almería) and 57% (Castellón), which supports a multi-goal scenario and confirms the Over 1.5 selection.

Almería is the clear favorite: the home side’s goals per match average is 1.95 versus Castellón’s 1.33, and Almería win 59% of home games compared to 33% away wins for Castellón. The hosts led at the break in 45% of matches and score on average 0.86 goals before half-time versus 0.76 for their opponents, which increases the likelihood of a lead at the break. The advantage is confirmed by xG of 1.83 for Almería versus 1.68 for Castellón and more shots 16.09 versus 14.24, suggesting a higher number of genuine scoring opportunities and a greater chance of maintaining the lead. Additionally, Almería have scored 13 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 6 for Castellón, indicating an ability to close out matches late; therefore the most likely scenario is a Half-Time/Full-Time lead and win for the home side (1/1), assessed here at 39% with the alternative X/1 around 19%.