Alta vs Forward Madison: match statistics

Forward Madison has a clear efficiency edge: away they average 1.6 goals with a 20% conversion rate, while Alta at home records 1.2 goals with only a 7% conversion. Alta controls possession (64%) and attempts (17.4 shots per game) and posts higher home xG (2.02 vs 1.1), but fails to convert that into wins (0 home wins this season, 80% draws). In the last 5 matches Alta averages just 0.4 points per game and has conceded 12 goals (2.4 per game), whereas Forward Madison averages 1.4 PPG and has conceded 8 goals (1.6 per game). Defensively the visitors are more stable — Alta concedes 1.6 goals at home on average, while Forward Madison concedes 1.0 away; additionally the visitors have a positive away goal difference of +3. Given the visitors’ higher efficiency, better PPG in the last 5 games and Alta’s lack of home wins, I project a Forward Madison victory.

Strong signal for BTTS - Yes comes from Alta’s form: in the last 5 matches they had BTTS in 100%, scoring 7 and conceding 12 goals (avg 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded per match). Forward Madison has a season BTTS of 60% and also 60% in the last 5, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded (8-8 in the last 5). xG data confirm chance creation — Alta’s recent xG is 1.58 with xG against 1.68, while the visitors have 0.87 xG and 1.52 xG against, indicating the possibility of goals from both sides. Additionally, the league records BTTS 56% and an average of 2.75 goals per match, and clean sheet rates are 0% for Alta and 20% for Forward Madison, so the lack of a resilient home defense increases the probability. Considering Alta’s 100% BTTS in the last 5, 60% for the visitors, the cited xG and goal balance (7-12 vs 8-8), I assess the chance of BTTS at 80% vs 20% No Goal.

Based on xG from the last 5 matches: Alta averages 1.58 xG per game and concedes 1.68 xG, while Forward Madison averages 0.87 xG and allows 1.52 xG — resulting expected goals are Alta 1.55 and Forward Madison 1.28, totaling 2.83. This total of 2.83 is slightly above the league average of 2.75 and consistent with form: Alta have scored 7 goals in the last 5 (1.4 avg) and conceded 12 (2.4 avg), while Forward Madison have scored 8 and conceded 8 (1.6 avg). A Poisson model with lambda=2.83 produces approximate probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈77%, Over 2.5 ≈54% and Over 3.5 ≈31%, hence a strong potential for at least two goals. Additionally, seasonal indicators confirm a goal-prone trend: Forward Madison have 60% of matches over 2.5 and 60% BTTS, and Alta had 100% of their last 5 matches over 2.5, which reinforces the Over signal. The strongest data signal is Over 1.5 (pick: over, line 1.5) due to the highest probability of 77% and the projected total of 2.83 goals.

Data indicate an advantage for Forward Madison: they have a 60% win rate this season and held a lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches (60%), suggesting strong starts. At half-time the visitors score on average 1.2 goals and concede 0.4, and 80% of their matches feature more than 0.5 first-half goals, increasing the likelihood they will be leading at the break. Alta, however, did not lead at half-time in their last 5 matches (0%), have 0% wins in their last five outings and concede on average 1.4 goals by half-time, so a home lead at the break is unlikely. Seasonally Forward Madison score 1.6 and concede 1.0, and their average points gained by half-time is 2.2, which suggests half-time leads often translate into full-time wins. On this basis the most certain scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2) — 42%, followed by X/2 20% and X/X 16%; options with the home side leading at half-time I assessed at 0%.