Aluminij vs Radomlje: match statistics

Aluminij holds a small but tangible edge and I back them to win: at home they average 4.23 shots on target per match versus Radomlje’s 3.23 SoT away, which translates into more chances. The hosts score 1.46 goals per match with an average xG of 1.35, while the visitors have 1.31 goals and xG 1.26, with a conversion rate of 15% versus 14%. In short-term form Aluminij have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 (1.4 points per game), whereas Radomlje have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per game). Both defenses are vulnerable — Aluminij concede 1.85 goals at home and Radomlje concede 1.77 away, and the combined average goals are 3.31 versus 3.08, so an open game is likely. Additionally, the hosts fail to score in only 15% of home matches versus 23% of the visitors’ away matches, which confirms Aluminij’s greater attacking efficiency and justifies their advantage.

Seasonal indicators clearly favor BTTS: Aluminij has BTTS 77% and Radomlje 69%, both well above the league average of 61%. A calculation using clean sheet rates confirms this: Aluminij keeps a clean sheet in 8% of matches, Radomlje in 15%, which gives an estimated (1-0.08)*(1-0.15)=0.92*0.85≈78% probability that both will concede at least one goal. Goal and xG metrics also support an exchange of goals — goals scored 1.54 vs 1.31 and goals conceded 1.85 and 1.77, while xG 1.40 vs 1.26 yields a combined xG ≈2.66. In the last 5 matches Radomlje has BTTS 80% and concedes on average 2.2 goals, Aluminij has BTTS 60% and concedes 1.6 goals, so the visitors’ defense is particularly unstable. Given the above, I pick BTTS "Yes" with a probability 78% vs 22% as the strongest signal from the data.

Combining xG with defensive data yields expected goals: xG Aluminij 1.40 and xG Radomlje 1.26, while average xG conceded is 1.63 for Aluminij and 1.84 for Radomlje, translating to an estimated 1.62 goals for the home side and 1.45 for the away side (total 3.07). Season-long metrics show Over 1.5 occurred in 100% of Aluminij’s matches and 92% of Radomlje’s, and both teams saw both teams to score in 77%/69% of matches respectively, which strongly increases the probability of over 1.5 goals. For the 2.5 threshold there is a moderately strong signal: seasonally 77% (home) and 69% (away), and in Radomlje’s last 5 matches they had over 2.5 in 80% of cases, so Over 2.5 is realistic (~72%). The 3.5 line has weaker support — seasonally only 38% for both teams and the expected 3.07 goals point toward Under 3.5. The strongest recommendation is therefore Over 1.5 (≈96%), while acknowledging that Over 2.5 (≈72%) remains possible.

Analysis shows that in the last 5 matches Radomlje led at the break in 2 of 5 games (40%) and averaged 1.4 goals by halftime, while Aluminij averaged 0.8 goals at halftime in those fixtures. However, Aluminij clearly dominates after the break: they score an average of 1.08 goals in the second half and average 1.46 points in second halves, compared to Radomlje’s 0.69 goals and 0.85 points after the break. Additionally, the visitors have a higher xG (1.40 vs 1.26), a better conversion rate (17% vs 14%) and more shots on target (3.85 vs 3.23), and they score more frequently in the closing stages — Aluminij scored 6 goals in 76–90' while Radomlje conceded 9 goals in that period. For these reasons the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at halftime and a turnaround by the hosts after the break (2/1), which I assign a 30% probability to; alternatively I give 22% to a halftime draw and a home win (X/1) and 15% to the hosts leading at halftime and holding on to win (1/1).