Amarante vs Lusitania Lourosa: match statistics

Lusitania Lourosa sit 2nd in the table, while Amarante are only 15th. In the only meeting so far this season, the visitors won 2:0, whereas the home side lost 1:2. Lourosa’s key advantage is their defensive solidity: they have yet to concede, while Amarante have allowed 2 goals. Although Amarante have scored more goals across their last five matches—7 compared with 6—the home side’s points-per-game average stands at 1.6, only marginally higher than the visitors’ 1.4. Amarante have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested game, but the higher league position and stronger start to the season give Lusitania Lourosa a slight edge. A tight match is expected, with the visitors more likely to settle it by a one-goal margin.

Recent form slightly supports goals at both ends: BTTS - Yes occurred in 60% of Amarante’s last five matches and in 40% of Lusitania Lourosa’s fixtures. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored, while the visitors averaged 1.2; both teams conceded 1.0 and 0.8 goals per match, respectively. The potential for chances is further indicated by the xG against them, at 1.41 for Amarante and as high as 1.63 for Lusitania Lourosa, suggesting that both defenses are vulnerable to opponents’ chances. However, the BTTS pick is only moderate, as the league average for this market is just 33%, while the average number of goals in the competition is 1.89.

Data from the last five matches indicates moderate scoring potential: Amarante averaged 1.4 goals, while Lusitania Lourosa averaged 1.2. At the same time, both teams conceded relatively few goals—1.0 and 0.8 per match, respectively—which limits the prospects of a high-scoring game. Average offensive xG stands at just 1.04 for the home side and 1.00 for the visitors, while the league averages only 1.89 goals per match. Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of Amarante’s last five matches, but in only 40% of Lusitania’s games, while Over 3.5 would require a clear deviation from their current scoring profiles. The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.14 goals leaves a substantial safety margin below this line.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Amarante win after the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 fixtures and subsequently averaged 1.6 points per game over the full period. In this sequence, Amarante averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Lusitania Lourosa scored 1.2 goals and recorded 2 defeats in 5 matches. The visitors managed to lead at the break in 60% of their recent matches, so HT/FT variants involving a first-half advantage for them remain relevant; however, after half-time they concede an average of 0.6 goals while scoring only 0.6. The hosts are more defensively solid after the interval, allowing an average of just 0.4 goals, while the league also favors home sides, who hold an overall advantage of approximately 12%. The competition’s low-scoring profile, with an average of 1.89 goals per match and only 33% of games featuring goals from both teams, further strengthens the likelihood of a cautious, level opening before the result later turns in Amarante’s favor.