Amarante vs Portimonense: match statistics

Amarante sit 15th, but have picked up 8 points in their last five matches, while 11th-placed Portimonense have managed only 4. The hosts have scored 6 goals and conceded 5 over that period, whereas the visitors have scored just 2 and conceded 6, pointing to a more favourable trend for Amarante. At home, Amarante average 1 goal per match with an xG of 1.48; Portimonense score an average of 0.67 goals away from home, with an xG of 1.32. The visitors concede only 0.67 goals per away match, so despite the hosts’ edge in recent form and chance creation, a draw remains a realistic outcome.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: in their matches so far, both teams have scored in 0% of Amarante’s games and 33% of Portimonense’s. Both teams average just 0.67 goals per match, with Amarante failing to score in 67% of its matches. In their last five games, Portimonense scored only 0.4 goals per match, and BTTS landed in just 20% of its matches, compared with 40% for Amarante. The xG figures of 1.20 for the hosts and 1.32 for the visitors offer some counterbalance, pointing to goal-scoring chances; however, both teams’ scoring efficiency stands at just 6%. Therefore, a scenario in which only one team scores—or neither does—is clearly more likely than both teams finding the net.

In Amarante’s home matches and Portimonense’s away matches so far, neither side has seen more than 2 goals, pointing clearly towards Under 3.5 goals. Both teams average 0.67 goals scored in these conditions, while Portimonense have managed just 0.4 goals per match across their last 5 games. Their attacking potential may be slightly higher than the results suggest: the hosts’ average xG is 1.20 and the visitors’ is 1.32, so I do not expect a goalless match. With a projected total of 2.00 goals, Under 3.5 is the strongest pick, although the limited number of recent matches for both teams reduces confidence in the assessment.

The strongest signal in favor of Amarante leading at the break is their recent form: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Portimonense were trailing at that stage in 3 of their last 5. Over the same period, Amarante averaged 1.2 goals per match compared with the visitors’ 0.4, and recorded 1.6 points per match compared with 0.8. The prospect of them holding their lead is supported by the fact that Portimonense have failed to score after the break in each of their last 5 matches, while Amarante have averaged 0.6 second-half goals. The main risk to this HT/FT pick comes from the full-season statistics: both teams average 0.67 goals per match, while Amarante concede 1.33 per match compared with 0.67 for the visitors. Despite this uncertainty, the hosts’ advantage across their last 5 matches, particularly before half-time, makes 1/1 the strongest scenario.